Commerzbank’s Tender Blackout and Berlin’s Veto Leave Investors in the Dark Until July 8

UniCredit's extended offer for Commerzbank faces a political deadlock as Germany refuses to sell its 12% stake, blocking a full takeover; final results due July 8.

The battle for Commerzbank has entered a news vacuum. Since UniCredit extended its exchange offer until 3 July, the daily acceptance tallies that once kept the market on edge have disappeared. German reporting rules do not apply during this so-called “additional acceptance period,” so the next official update will not arrive until 8 July, when the Frankfurt-based lender publishes the final results. Until then, shareholders can still tender their shares through their custodians, but they will have no idea how many others have done so.

Berlin has thrown up a far bigger obstacle than any lack of data. The German government refuses to sell its 12% stake in Commerzbank to UniCredit, effectively blocking any chance of a squeeze-out for the remaining investors. The Italian bank has calculated it controls roughly 39% of the shares once its existing holdings and newly tendered stock are combined, but without the state’s block a full takeover remains out of reach. Officials in the capital have described UniCredit’s strategy as impractical, particularly for the core business of lending to small and medium-sized enterprises — a clear signal that the resistance from the Commerzbank board now has powerful political backing.

The stock has shrugged off the political headwinds so far. Shares were changing hands at €38.10 on Tuesday, a marginal decline of 0.6% but still just a whisker below the 52-week high of €38.85 touched last week. The long-term uptrend remains intact, with the price comfortably above the 200-day moving average. Yet UniCredit has warned in its offer documents that a shrinking free float threatens to drain liquidity and amplify volatility for the remaining shareholders. In an extreme scenario, Commerzbank could even lose its spot in the DAX index.

Terms of the deal have not changed: UniCredit is offering 0.485 of its own shares for each Commerzbank share, and the Italian lender has ruled out any subsequent improvement. The management board and supervisory board continue to urge shareholders to reject the bid, arguing the premium is inadequate. Just over 1% of the 12.51% already tendered came from independent investors, the rest from UniCredit’s earlier stake-building.

All eyes are now on 8 July. By then UniCredit must find a way to overcome Berlin’s resistance if it wants to tighten its grip, while the Commerzbank management pins its hopes on the stand-alone “Momentum 2030” plan. The extended deadline gives both sides more time, but the blackout means the market will have to guess how the numbers are stacking up until the end of next week.