Commerzbank’s Stand-Alone Bet: €6 Billion Profit Target and AI Overhaul to Outrun UniCredit

Commerzbank reports €913M Q1 profit, launches 'Momentum 2030' plan with AI investments and job cuts to defend independence from UniCredit's hostile bid.

Commerzbank has fired a broadside at UniCredit, unveiling a record-breaking first quarter and a sweeping long-term strategy designed to convince shareholders that independence is the better bet. The Frankfurt-based lender is betting that a combination of cost cuts, artificial intelligence investments, and a dividend windfall will be enough to see off Milan’s unwanted advances.

The numbers for the opening three months of 2026 make for compelling reading. Net profit rose roughly 9 percent year-on-year to €913 million, comfortably beating the consensus analyst estimate of around €868 million. Operating profit climbed 11 percent to €1.4 billion, while net commission income hit an all-time high of €1.1 billion. On the back of that performance, CEO Bettina Orlopp lifted the full-year net profit target to at least €3.4 billion, up from a previous goal of €3.2 billion.

That stronger-than-expected showing provides the foundation for “Momentum 2030”, a strategic blueprint that aims to nearly double profitability over the next four years. The bank is targeting a return on equity of 17 percent by 2028 and 21 percent by 2030, with net profit swelling to €5.9 billion by the end of the decade. To get there, Commerzbank plans to deploy €600 million in artificial intelligence technologies, freeing up roughly 10 percent of its workforce capacity through automation.

The efficiency drive comes with a human cost. Around 3,000 full-time positions are set to be eliminated by 2030, with the restructuring carrying a €450 million price tag. The bank has agreed with the works council that there will be no compulsory redundancies, instead relying on early retirement schemes. Verdi, the influential trade union, has confirmed that no layoffs for operational reasons are on the table.

Management has been quick to contrast its own job-cut plans with what it says UniCredit’s takeover would mean for staff. According to Commerzbank’s calculations, the synergies promised by the Italian lender would require at least 7,000 job losses, with additional cuts potentially putting another 4,000 roles at risk. The message to employees and politicians alike is clear: a stand-alone future is the less painful path.

The political landscape is already stacked against UniCredit. The German federal government, which still holds a 12 percent stake, has made no secret of its opposition to a hostile deal. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has stressed the importance of economic sovereignty, while financial regulator BaFin recently clamped down on what it deemed misleading advertising by the Italian bank. UniCredit’s all-stock offer — 0.485 of its own shares for each Commerzbank share, recently worth around €34.35 — also faces a valuation hurdle. Commerzbank’s stock closed on Friday at €35.81, a clear premium to the bid.

The market’s reaction to the defense strategy has been muted. Shares edged lower on the day, though they have still gained roughly 47 percent over the past twelve months. Technical indicators suggest the rally may be running out of steam for now: the relative strength index stands above 90, deep in overbought territory, making some profit-taking unsurprising. Analysts at RBC, however, remain bullish, rating the stock “Outperform” with a price target of €43.

UniCredit already has direct access to around 35 percent of Commerzbank’s shares, but its offer acceptance period runs until June 16. Whether it will improve its terms or apply pressure through other channels remains the key question. The German bank’s board is due to publish its formal opinion on the bid ahead of the annual general meeting in Wiesbaden on May 20, with the shares trading ex-dividend the following day. That document will set the tone for the next phase of the battle — one in which Commerzbank has now laid out its most detailed case yet for going it alone.