Commerzbank’s Record €2.7bn Payout Lands as UniCredit Offer Draws a Mere 0.02% of Shareholders

Commerzbank pays €1.10 dividend, but only 0.02% of shares tendered to UniCredit; strong Q1 profits and AI investment bolster independence case.

Commerzbank shareholders are collecting a bumper €1.10 per share dividend this week, part of a total €2.7bn capital return that fairly screams “we’re worth keeping independent.” Yet the market’s response to UniCredit’s hostile bid has been deafeningly quiet: as of the first acceptance deadline on 19 May, just 0.02% of Commerzbank shares had been tendered, underscoring how little appetite there is to sell out at the Italian lender’s terms.

The dividend, approved at the annual general meeting on 20 May, represents a 69% leap from the €0.65 paid last year. Payout begins on 26 May, following the ex-dividend date of 21 May. The total return to investors includes not only the €1.2bn dividend but also a share buyback programme that has been expanded, with management receiving authorisation to repurchase up to 10% of the bank’s share capital. For the 2025 financial year, Commerzbank is handing back 100% of net profit (after restructuring costs and AT1 coupons) and has pledged to raise the dividend payout ratio to at least 50% in coming years.

Political winds around the takeover saga shifted over the weekend. Reports emerged that Friedrich Merz could drop his potential veto of a merger, a notable reversal from the government’s traditional role as defender of an independent Commerzbank. The prospect of a more permissive attitude to cross-border European consolidation was bolstered by Thomas Mayer, former Deutsche Bank chief economist, who argued in a Deutschlandfunk interview that larger European lenders are needed to compete with US giants. For UniCredit, a softening of political opposition would be a clear boost, though the offer still has little traction on the ground.

The bank’s strong operating performance gives it a solid base to argue for independence. In the first quarter of 2026, Commerzbank posted an operating result of roughly €1.4bn, up 11% year-on-year, with net income coming in at €913m. Chief executive Bettina Orlopp used the momentum to raise the full-year net profit target to at least €3.4bn, having previously only guided for “more than €3.2bn”. The “Momentum 2030” strategy is central to this push, including a €600m investment in artificial intelligence aimed at boosting efficiency and proving the standalone case with measurable improvements.

Despite the dividend cheer, the share price closed Friday at €36.16, slipping 0.19% on the week but still up 3.85% over the past month. That leaves the stock less than 4% below its 52-week high of €37.75. Analysts see more room to run: Barclays reiterated an “overweight” rating on 21 May with a €42 target, implying another 16% upside, while Deutsche Bank Research recently raised its target to €40. Technically, the relative strength index at 80.6 signals an overbought condition, which could cap near-term gains. The chart shows resistance around €37 and support at €34, a zone that will be tested as the dividend payment removes the associated value from the share price.

With UniCredit’s acceptance period running until 16 June, three forces are now colliding: the dividend drain on the stock, improving earnings prospects, and shifting political signals. If Commerzbank’s shares can hold the support zone despite the payout, takeover speculation will stay alive. A clean break above the €37 resistance would force the market into a wholesale re-evaluation of the bank’s standalone worth.