Commerzbank's Bettina Orlopp Calls Out ECB's de Guindos as Shares Trade Well Above UniCredit's Offer

Commerzbank CEO rejects UniCredit's lowball offer, criticizes ECB, unveils defense with dividend hike and AI cost cuts as stock trades above bid price.

The battle for Commerzbank's future is turning into a full-throated campaign on multiple fronts. Chief executive Bettina Orlopp is not only fighting off UniCredit's all-share bid but has also taken a public swipe at the European Central Bank, accusing its vice president of cheering on a deal that she says would shrink Germany's flagship lender rather than strengthen it.

Shares in the Frankfurt-based bank have been defying the offer's terms. The stock recently changed hands at €36.48, representing a chunky premium to the implied value of UniCredit's exchange proposal of roughly €31 per share. Over the past twelve months, the price has climbed 42%, though the Relative Strength Index now sits above 83, flagging a heavily overbought market. UniCredit, which already owns close to a third of Commerzbank's equity, is offering 0.485 of its own shares for each Commerzbank share — a deal the Frankfurt camp dismisses as a bargain-basement attempt to seize control.

Orlopp saved her sharpest words for ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, who recently spoke favourably about consolidation in Europe's banking sector. She rejected that stance outright, insisting Commerzbank is not a pawn in a wider consolidation game. Her view of UniCredit's plan is blunt: it is a pure shrinkage strategy for the German lender, offering no genuine premium and carrying heavy execution risks.

To demonstrate the bank's ability to go it alone, management is rolling out a shareholder-friendly defence and a cost-savings programme fuelled by artificial intelligence. The board has proposed lifting the dividend to €1.10 per share at the annual general meeting on 20 May, and is asking shareholders to approve a fresh buyback authorisation of up to 10% of share capital. On the operational side, around 3,000 gross positions are to be cut, mainly from external call centres and IT service providers, with no compulsory redundancies planned. The bank aims to achieve the bulk of the savings through AI, building on last year's record earnings.

A formal, reasoned opinion from the board on the UniCredit offer is expected early next week, ahead of the AGM where Orlopp will face investors' questions. Until that statement lands, management is advising shareholders against any hasty decisions. The regular acceptance period for the offer runs until 16 June 2026, with an extended window ending in early July. Even if UniCredit succeeds, regulatory hurdles mean the transaction is unlikely to close before 2027.

The German government, still holding just over 12% of Commerzbank as an anchor shareholder, has signalled its scepticism about a takeover. Analysts see additional upside potential for the stock: JPMorgan has a price target of €37, while Deutsche Bank sees fair value at €42. For now, Orlopp's message to both the ECB and Milan is clear — Commerzbank is not for sale on the cheap.