Commerzbank’s AI-Led Job Cuts and Record Profit Target Raise Stakes in UniCredit Stand-Off

Commerzbank plans 3,000 job cuts via AI, posts record Q1 profit, and relies on political backing to resist UniCredit's below-market takeover offer.

The countdown to Commerzbank’s annual general meeting on 20 May is tightening, yet the board’s formal opinion on UniCredit’s takeover offer remains unpublished. The long-awaited statement, required under German securities law, will crystallise how aggressively management plans to fight the Italian lender’s unsolicited all-share bid. In the meantime, fresh details have emerged about the bank’s own defence strategy: a steep reduction in headcount powered by artificial intelligence.

Chief executive Bettina Orlopp intends to eliminate roughly 3,000 positions, targeting external call-centre operators and IT contractors rather than permanent staff. The automation push, which will cost around €600 million by 2030, is designed to slim costs without triggering compulsory redundancies. Orlopp has painted the move as a socially responsible transformation, directly contrasting it with what Frankfurt calls UniCredit’s “pure shrinkage” approach.

The operational ammunition behind that narrative is growing. Commerzbank posted a record first quarter, with operating profit climbing 11% to €1.358 billion, the best quarterly result in its history. Net income after minorities reached €913 million, while net fee and commission income hit an all-time high of €1.102 billion. Earnings per share of €0.84 exceeded market forecasts, and revenue also came in slightly above expectations. JPMorgan responded by lifting its price target to €37 but kept an unchanged “neutral” rating.

For the full 2026 financial year, management has set a net profit target of at least €3.4 billion. That ambition sits uncomfortably alongside UniCredit’s current offer of 0.485 new UniCredit shares per Commerzbank share, which was valued at around €31.07 when the offer document was published on 5 May 2026. The market, however, is pricing Commerzbank substantially higher: the stock traded at €36.41 on Tuesday, marking a 12-month gain of 41.5%. That wide gap between bid and market value has become a central pillar of the bank’s resistance case.

Frankfurt argues that shareholders would surrender control and future value upside without receiving any control premium. The board is also deploying capital returns to bolster its independence pitch. Alongside the proposed dividend of €1.10 per share, Commerzbank has already completed share buybacks worth €1.5 billion and plans to return a total of €2.7 billion to investors for the 2025 financial year. An authorisation to repurchase up to 10% of outstanding shares is on the agenda for the AGM.

Political support continues to flow from Berlin. Chancellor Friedrich Merz publicly described UniCredit’s approach as “hostile and aggressive” and rejected it “decisively”. The federal government still holds just over 12% of Commerzbank’s equity, giving it a blocking minority on any strategic decisions requiring a 75% vote. That backing, however, was partially undercut by the European Central Bank, which criticised the German government’s position – a remark Orlopp promptly dismissed as destabilising.

The formal board opinion under Section 27 of the German Securities Acquisition and Takeover Act is expected soon, following a thorough review of UniCredit’s offer document. That text will need to spell out how Commerzbank intends to close the gap between the bid price and its own strategy plan. The extended acceptance period for the offer is likely to run until 3 July 2026, with regulatory approvals pushing a final closing into 2027. For now, every data point – from record quarterly earnings to the AI-driven job cuts – adds pressure on UniCredit to justify why its all-share terms should attract enough tenders to succeed.