Commerzbank’s €1.2bn Dividend Delivers a Message as UniCredit’s Hostile Bid Struggles for Traction

Commerzbank pays €1.10 dividend, up 70%; stock near 52-week high. UniCredit's tender offer gains only 0.02% support; bank raises 2026 profit target to €3.4bn.

Commerzbank shareholders received a hefty dividend of €1.10 per share today, a near-70% increase from the prior year that underscores the bank’s ability to reward loyal investors while fending off a hostile takeover. The payout, approved on 20 May 2026 by 99.88% of votes at the annual meeting, forms part of a broader capital return of roughly €2.7bn for the 2025 financial year when combined with completed share buybacks. That sum represents the entire net profit before restructuring charges, after deducting AT-1 coupon payments.

The gesture of confidence arrives as the bank’s stock trades near its 52-week high of €37.75, having climbed about 40% over the past twelve months. Yet the rally has pushed the relative strength index to nearly 80, a level that signals the shares are technically overbought. The ex-dividend date was 21 May, meaning only those who held the stock that day are eligible for today’s payment.

Meanwhile, UniCredit’s tender offer for Commerzbank is failing to gain any meaningful support. According to the latest tally on 19 May, a mere 0.02% of Commerzbank shares had been tendered. The theoretical value of the offer currently stands at €34.56 per share, significantly below the market price of €37.01, which on Tuesday slipped 0.91% but has still advanced 1.98% over the past week. The gap between bid and market price is the central obstacle: independent analysts see a median target of €41.50, and the 30-day gain of 6.50% reinforces the view that shareholders see better value in staying put.

Insiders indicate UniCredit has no intention of sweetening the terms. With the acceptance deadline running until 3 July, the offer appears likely to expire without sufficient backing. Even if it were to succeed, the deal would not close until 2027 due to multiple regulatory approvals. The 200-day moving line currently lies 10.21% below the stock, while an RSI of 79.6 points to a market that is already pricing in a stand-alone outcome.

Commerzbank’s defense rests on solid operational performance. First-quarter net profit rose 9% to €913m, and operating profit climbed 11% to €1.4bn. Revenue increased 5% to €3.2bn, with net interest income holding steady at €2bn despite lower policy rates and commission income reaching €1.1bn. The strong start prompted management to raise its 2026 net profit target to at least €3.4bn.

Under the “Momentum 2030” strategy, the bank expects revenues to hit €16.8bn and net profit to reach €5.9bn by the end of the decade, with a return on tangible equity of 21%. The cost of that ambition includes a €600m investment in artificial intelligence between 2026 and 2030. Efficiency gains will also come from headcount reductions: an additional 3,000 full-time positions are slated for elimination, on top of the 3,900 job cuts announced in February 2025.

The dividend policy is a key pillar of the stand-alone narrative. Future payouts are to comprise at least half of total capital returns, and the annual meeting authorised further buybacks of up to 10% of share capital, pending approval from the European Central Bank and Germany’s financial agency. For now, the board is betting that solid numbers, a generous payout, and a credible long-term plan will keep shareholders on side – and keep UniCredit at arm’s length.