Commerzbank’s €1.10 Dividend Lands in Accounts as UniCredit Bid Stalls at 0.02%

Commerzbank pays €1.10 dividend as UniCredit's offer stalls with only 0.02% tendered; RSI at 80.6 signals overbought conditions.

Commerzbank shareholders begin the week with a dividend payment landing in their accounts on Tuesday, a day that also underscores just how little traction the Italian rival’s takeover offer has gained. The €1.10-a-share payout — a 70% jump from last year’s 65 cents — was approved by the annual general meeting on 20 May and serves as the latest evidence that management is banking on its own strategy rather than a hostile suitor.

That strategy now has concrete financial heft. The Frankfurt-based lender reported first-quarter operating earnings of roughly €1.4 billion, an 11% increase, with net profit hitting €913 million on revenues of €3.219 billion. The board has set an ambitious target of €5.9 billion in net income and a 21% return on equity by the end of the decade. A key plank in that plan is a €600 million investment in artificial intelligence between 2026 and 2030, aimed at streamlining processes and cutting costs.

Yet the stock’s technical picture is sending a more cautious message. After Friday’s close at €36.16, the relative strength index stands at 80.6, a level that screams short-term overbought. The 50-day moving average sits around €34, providing a comfortable cushion, but any sustained push above €37 — the first real resistance zone — would need to break through heavy selling pressure. If it does, the old high near €38.40 comes into view. On the downside, support is pegged at €35.10.

The Chaikin Money Flow has posted consistently positive readings since mid-April, suggesting institutional capital is flowing in steadily rather than in speculative bursts. That lends a degree of resilience, even as the RSI flashes warning lights.

UniCredit’s offer, meanwhile, is going nowhere fast. According to the first interim result on 19 May, a mere 0.02% of Commerzbank shares had been tendered. The regular acceptance period runs until 16 June, but the extended deadline stretches to 3 July 2026, with final completion not expected until 2027 pending regulatory approvals. Management and the supervisory board have formally rejected the bid, arguing the premium is too thin and the strategic plan too vague and risky. Insider reports suggest UniCredit has no plans to sweeten the terms.

The next macro catalyst comes on 27 May, when the European Central Bank releases its financial stability review for the euro area. Any specific commentary on credit markets could sway the entire banking sector. For Commerzbank, holding its support levels in that environment would set the stage for another test of the upside resistance that has so far kept the stock in check.

For now, the dividend payment — and the clear signal it sends about management’s confidence — is the dominant narrative. The offer deadline may be ticking, but the shareholders appear to be voting with their feet.