Commerzbank Nears Record High on Profit Upgrade and Dividend Payout, While UniCredit Tender Dispute Simmers

Shares rally 40% in a year as Commerzbank's Momentum 2030 plan boosts profit targets and dividends, while UniCredit's takeover battle intensifies with regulatory scrutiny.

Commerzbank shares have marched to within a whisker of a fresh 52-week peak, touching €38.85 before settling at €38.58 – a gain of nearly 40% over the past twelve months. The rally has been driven by the bank’s own strategic overhaul and generous shareholder returns, all while an increasingly complex takeover battle with UniCredit plays out under the hood.

The catalyst for the latest leg higher was the “Momentum 2030” strategy update presented on 8 May. First?quarter 2026 operating profit hit a record, prompting management to lift its full?year net profit target to at least €3.4 billion. The roadmap is ambitious: a return on tangible equity of 21% by 2030, a cost?income ratio of 43% (from 53% in Q1), and €600 million earmarked for artificial intelligence investments. The market is rewarding the delivery – this is no fleeting euphoria, but a reflection of genuine structural progress.

Shareholders are also being handed a record payout. The annual general meeting on 20 May approved a €1.10 dividend for 2025, equivalent to 100% of net profit before restructuring charges and after AT?1 coupon payments. The bank intends to maintain that full payout ratio until its CET1 Core Equity Tier 1 ratio reaches 13.5%. For income?focused investors, that is a clear and transparent commitment.

Technically, the stock sits about 7% above its 50?day moving average and more than 13% above the 200?day moving average, with a relative strength index of 65.2 – strong but not overheating. Management’s decision to rebuff UniCredit’s overture underscores confidence in the standalone strategy, a view the market increasingly shares.

Across the bid side, the initial acceptance window closed in mid?June. Investors tendered roughly 140 million Commerzbank shares, representing 12.41% of the capital. UniCredit already holds about 302 million shares directly, giving it nearly 27% of the voting rights. The real controversy, however, lies in the derivatives tail.

UniCredit has disclosed extra voting rights of 3.22% via total?return swaps, plus cash?settled instruments covering about 13% of capital. The Italian lender argues the cash?settled positions carry no voting rights, but Commerzbank disagrees. Frankfurt has asked Germany’s financial regulator BaFin to examine whether the derivative structure truly separates economic exposure from control.

Berlin has waded in too, rejecting the bid outright as too low and stressing Commerzbank’s importance to the domestic economy. The political headwinds are stiff, yet the stock remains resilient.

The next chapter opens on 20 June, when a further acceptance period begins, running until 3 July. Final results are due on 8 July. Until then, investors will be weighing the bank’s own profit and payout story against the uncertain arithmetic of UniCredit’s creeping grip. For now, the fundamentals are winning the argument.