Commerzbank Near 52-Week High as UniCredit Bid Period Closes Without Broad Support

UniCredit's takeover offer for Commerzbank expires with few acceptances; Berlin rejects bid, while Commerzbank's strong share price and €2.7B payout shield it.

The acceptance period for UniCredit’s takeover offer for Commerzbank ends today, and the result appears a foregone conclusion. The bid was always an uphill battle: Commerzbank’s shares have traded consistently above the implied offer price, leaving independent shareholders with zero economic incentive to tender. The few acceptances that trickled in came almost entirely from banks and parties connected to the Italian lender, according to the German bank’s own analysis. That lack of arms-length support has been a structural weakness in the offer from the start.

Berlin has now officially weighed in, rejecting the takeover bid outright. The federal government called the price too low and the strategic plan unconvincing. Commerzbank’s management had already voiced the same reservations, criticising the absence of a meaningful premium and questioning the logic of UniCredit’s blueprint. The bank has also escalated the matter by calling for greater transparency around the acceptances and informing the financial watchdog BaFin.

Behind the share price’s resilience lies a deliberate strategy by Commerzbank to prove its worth as an independent institution. At the annual general meeting in May, shareholders approved a dividend of €1.10 per share for the 2025 financial year. Combined with completed share buybacks worth roughly €1.5 billion, total distributions amount to around €2.7 billion — equivalent to 100% of net profit after restructuring costs and AT1 coupon payments. The bank has pledged to keep increasing these payouts in the years ahead.

Technically, the stock is within striking distance of a record. The latest closing price of €38.10 sits just 0.73% below the 52-week high of €38.38. On a 12-month view the shares have surged nearly 38%, while all key moving averages point decisively higher: the 200-day line stands at €33.94, and the 50-day average is 6.02% below the current price. The relative strength index of 63.1 signals clear upward momentum without entering overbought territory. Volatility has remained elevated, with the 30-day figure at 23.90%, reflecting the noise surrounding the takeover saga.

Political backing has provided a third line of defence alongside the bank’s own performance and strategy. Berlin’s rejection of the UniCredit bid shifts the power balance firmly in Commerzbank’s favour. Management insists it remains open to constructive dialogue — but only if a materially better financial offer emerges. This non-ideological stance strengthens the negotiating hand with shareholders, who now see a stock trading near its peak rather than a distressed target.

For now, the immediate threat from UniCredit’s approach has receded. The bank enters the post-deadline period with a market capitalisation of €39.8 billion, a generous shareholder return programme, and a political umbrella that few European lenders can rely on. The larger risk is that the stock has already priced in a great deal of optimism: any operational misstep or earnings disappointment could trigger a sharper correction. The coming quarters will test whether Commerzbank can sustain the momentum that made UniCredit’s bid look so unconvincing in the first place.