Commerzbank Navigates Tariff Headwinds and a Stalled Takeover Bid as Stock Outperforms

Tariff fears ease as effective US rate drops to 7%, but Commerzbank stock trades above UniCredit's €34.56 offer as only 1.1% of shares tendered.

The Commerzbank share is walking a tightrope between two powerful forces: a tarifflandscape that has eased but remains above historical norms, and a takeover bid from UniCredit that has drawn barely a shrug from shareholders — just 1.1% of free-float shares have been tendered so far. The stock closed Friday at €36.91, up 0.63% on the day and 4.44% over the past 30 days, sitting just 2.23% below its 52-week high of €37.75.

Tariffs: Better Than Feared, Still Painful

The bank’s own economists, Bernd Weidensteiner and Christoph Balz, published a fresh assessment on 29 May 2026. Their central finding: the worst nightmares from spring 2025 have not materialised. Legal challenges and a web of exemptions for companies, sectors and products have blunted the impact. The effective US tariff rate now averages roughly 7%, a far cry from the 20–25% that markets dreaded back in April 2025. Yet the old normal remains distant: before 2025 tariffs typically hovered between 2% and 3%, and the effective rate had climbed as high as about 11% as recently as October.

On the China front, tensions have also cooled from the peaks. US tariffs on Chinese imports briefly touched almost 50%, but the effective rate has since dropped to around 23%.

For Commerzbank this is not an abstract macro debate. The lender serves roughly 24,000 corporate client groups and handles an estimated 30% of Germany’s foreign trade. Any hiccup in global trade hits the bank’s credit pipeline, investment appetite and risk profile — especially given its heavy Mittelstand and export exposure. Added uncertainty lingers in the courts: parts of the US tariff regime remain under appeal, and until that is resolved, the duties stay in force.

UniCredit’s Offer Meets a Wall of Indifference

While the tariff picture is settling into a manageable but elevated groove, the takeover saga tells a different story. UniCredit is offering 0.485 new shares of its own stock for each Commerzbank share — a deal that, as of 15 May, valued each Commerzbank share at just €34.56. The market has consistently traded above that level since the offer was announced. As of Friday, Commerzbank’s stock was roughly 7% above its 200-day moving average and a full €2.35 above the offer’s implied price.

By 26 May, only 11.97 million shares had been tendered — a paltry 1.06% of the bank’s share capital. The message from shareholders is clear: the bid does not reflect fair value.

UniCredit is making incremental progress on the regulatory front. The Serbian competition authority recently gave its blessing. Still outstanding are EU merger control approval, foreign trade law clearances, an EU foreign subsidies review, and additional financial supervisory green lights. UniCredit itself expects a resolution no earlier than 2027, regardless of how many shareholders accept the current offer. Political complications also persist: the European Commission has called for changes to Italy’s “Golden Power” rules, whose impact on cross-border bank mergers remains uncertain.

Despite the low take-up, UniCredit continues to hold a combined position of 38.87% — comprising 26.77% directly held voting rights and 12.10% through instruments. That stake gives it a seat at the table but does not guarantee the broader support needed for a full takeover.

Commerzbank Fights Back with Capital Returns

Management is not waiting idly. The board and supervisory board have recommended rejecting the UniCredit offer, pointing to the standalone “Momentum 2030” strategy as a superior value-creating path. To back that up, Commerzbank has unleashed a record dividend of €1.10 per share, totalling roughly €1.2 billion, and combined with buybacks the total capital return package reaches around €2.7 billion — exactly 100% of adjusted net profit, according to the bank.

The extended acceptance period runs through to 3 July 2026, with daily updates in the final week. UniCredit will then have to decide whether to sweeten the terms or accept a humiliatingly small haul.

What’s on the Horizon

No quarterly report is due in the coming week — the next confirmed dates are 6 August 2026 and 5 November 2026. Instead, macro data will drive the narrative. Key events include:

• Germany Manufacturing PMI on 1 June 2026 at 07:55 UTC
• Eurozone HICP flash estimate on 2 June 2026 at 15:00 CET
• ECB meeting on 10–11 June 2026, with a press conference on the second day

Until the August earnings, Commerzbank’s short-term direction hinges on trade policy, inflation prints and interest rate expectations. The stock enters this period with momentum — the RSI at 72.5 is flashing overbought, suggesting little room for disappointment. A strong chart meets unresolved macro risk and a takeover bid that has yet to catch fire. Shareholders are demanding more than either UniCredit or the current tariff environment is willing to give.