Commerzbank Lays Out €600 Million AI Bet as UniCredit Bid Falls Short of Market Price

Commerzbank posts record Q1 profit, unveils €600M AI plan and 3,000 job cuts, arguing independence beats UniCredit's underwater €34.35/share bid.

Frankfurt’s second-largest lender is fighting for its future with a record quarter, a sweeping technology overhaul, and a clear message to shareholders: staying independent will deliver more value than any offer from Milan.

The Commerzbank board unveiled its “Momentum 2030” strategy on May 8, 2026, backed by first-quarter numbers that beat analyst expectations. Net profit rose roughly 9 percent year-on-year to €913 million, comfortably ahead of the consensus estimate of €868 million. Operating profit hit €1.36 billion, up about 10 percent, while net commission income reached a record €1.1 billion. The return on equity climbed to 12.7 percent.

Chief executive Bettina Orlopp used the results to raise the full-year outlook. The bank now expects net profit of at least €3.4 billion for 2026, €200 million more than the previous target. The longer-term ambition is even bolder: net profit of €5.9 billion by 2030, with the return on equity rising to 17 percent by 2028 and 21 percent by the end of the decade.

The centrepiece of the plan is a €600 million investment in artificial intelligence between 2026 and 2030. The bank aims to free up roughly 10 percent of its workforce capacity through AI deployment, while simultaneously building up headcount in growth areas such as the Comdirect digital brand and wealth management.

That reallocation comes with a cost. Around 3,000 full-time positions will be cut group-wide by 2030, with restructuring expenses estimated at €450 million. Under a transformation agreement with the Verdi union, compulsory redundancies are effectively ruled out. The bank is relying on retirement and a phased retirement programme that includes a €50,000 bonus. The shift marks a sharp reversal from December 2023, when then-human resources chief Sabine Mlnarsky said the bank would need roughly 20,000 new hires over the next decade. The pressure from UniCredit has fundamentally rewritten that script.

Management is using the job-cut plan as a defensive weapon. In a presentation to investors, the board argued that to achieve the €800 million in personnel cost savings UniCredit has flagged, the Italian lender would need to eliminate around 7,000 positions — more than double what Commerzbank itself is targeting.

UniCredit published its offer document on May 5, 2026, proposing an all-stock deal of 0.485 of its own shares for each Commerzbank share. Based on recent trading levels, that values the offer at roughly €34.35 per share. The problem for Milan is that Commerzbank’s stock closed on Friday at €35.81, leaving the bid clearly underwater. The shares have gained about 47 percent over the past twelve months, though the relative strength index of 90 signals the stock is technically overbought.

The extended acceptance period for UniCredit’s offer is expected to run until July 3, 2026. Commerzbank’s management and supervisory board plan to publish their formal statement under Section 27 of Germany’s Securities Acquisition and Takeover Act within the statutory deadline. The annual general meeting is scheduled for May 20, with the dividend payment due on May 26.

UniCredit already has direct access to roughly 35 percent of Commerzbank’s shares. The German government retains a 12 percent stake and has made clear its opposition to a hostile takeover, with Chancellor Merz citing economic sovereignty. Germany’s BaFin financial regulator recently banned misleading advertising by UniCredit. RBC rates Commerzbank shares “outperform” with a price target of €43, suggesting analysts see room for further upside even after the recent rally.