Coherent Shares Defy Selling Pressure with AI-Driven Momentum

Coherent US19247G1076

Coherent finds itself at a curious crossroads. While a significant prospectus registration has opened the door for potential insider sales, its share price continues its upward trajectory. Investors appear to be focusing squarely on the company's growth prospects in AI infrastructure and a series of recent analyst upgrades. What explains this apparent contradiction in market sentiment?

Typically, the registration of a large block of shares for sale creates an overhang that pressures a stock. However, in Coherent's case, this dynamic is being overshadowed by powerful fundamental drivers. The primary force is robust demand for components powering artificial intelligence data centers. This demand is intersecting with positive shifts in analyst sentiment.

Market researchers have recently refreshed their outlooks on the company. JPMorgan reaffirmed its positive rating, while Raymond James issued a notably more optimistic recommendation. Both firms highlighted Coherent's growth potential, particularly linked to its new 300-millimeter silicon carbide (SiC) platform. This technology is critical for addressing thermal efficiency challenges in AI data centers—a pressing bottleneck that hyperscale operators are increasingly compelled to solve.

Key Data Points

• Share Registration: Approximately 9.8 million common shares registered on December 16.
• Strategic Product Launch: Introduction of a 300mm SiC platform for advanced thermal management.
• Current Trading Price: €149.50.
• Year-to-Date Performance: +52.24% | 52-Week High: €169.00.

Market Perspective and Forward Path

The divergence between potential share sales and price strength reflects a current market theme: investors are rewarding suppliers of essential "picks and shovels" for AI infrastructure build-out. Coherent is undergoing a visible transformation from a traditional laser manufacturer to a key supplier for optical interconnects and power management—segments where demand currently outstrips supply.

Looking ahead, two near-term factors will likely dictate the equity's direction: the actual volume of shares sold from the registered block and the rate of adoption for its SiC platform within the data center sector. A sustained break above the 52-week peak of €169.00 would confirm the ongoing bullish trend. Conversely, a decline below the 50-day moving average (€128.09) could introduce doubt regarding its near-term momentum.

The next scheduled milestone is the fiscal second-quarter earnings report, due on February 11, 2026. Until then, the trajectory of AI-related capital expenditure and the market's ability to absorb any additional supply from the registered shares will remain crucial watchpoints for investors.