Circus Shows Its Robots to Berlin Officials, But Investors Are Looking for Contracts, Not Photo Ops

Circus showcased Autonomy One robot; stock down 49%. Production ramp to 304 units, defense deals with Bundeswehr and Ukraine, analyst targets €10-€46.

Circus made a splash in Berlin over the weekend, rolling out its Autonomy One food robot for live demonstrations at the federal government’s open-house event. CEO Nikolas Bullwinkel shared a panel with two parliamentary state secretaries and DeepL’s chief scientist. The message was about technological excellence and its role in driving economic and societal progress. For the stock market, though, the optics were empty. No contracts were announced, no financial targets were revised, and the share price closed the prior session at €6.19 – down nearly 49% since the start of 2026.

That’s not to say the company lacks operational momentum. In the first quarter of 2026, Circus produced 16 units of its CA-1 robotic chef. Capacity is slated to double in each of the second and third quarters, with a target of 64 units per month by the final quarter – implying total production capacity of 304 robots for the year. A partnership with contract manufacturer Celestica has already halved assembly time from eight weeks to four. System reliability has climbed from around 70% at the start of the year to over 92%, and daily maintenance per unit now stands at just 1.5 hours. Leasing models are being introduced with the aim of shortening sales cycles by up to 70%.

The defence division is moving even faster than expected. Circus Defence has already signed up the German Bundeswehr, Lithuania and Ukraine for its military outdoor robot, the CA-M. First revenues are hitting the books in 2026 – two years earlier than originally planned. More than ten NATO member states are in active discussions, and management expects a major military contract to materialise in the second half of the year, though the company has declined to disclose any potential order value. The CA-1 is also set to debut in the Mercedes-Benz canteen in Sindelfingen this summer, and REWE will decide on a full rollout in the autumn.

Against that backdrop, the financial numbers for 2025 look less punishing. Revenue rose roughly sixfold to about €1.5 million, while EBITDA loss came in at €18.5 million – better than the company’s own forecast of €21 million. A one-off charge of €3.2 million linked to acquisitions and capital increases weighed on the bottom line. The figures remain preliminary, however; the audited annual report is due no later than June 30, 2026.

The gulf in analyst thinking underscores the uncertainty. mwb research holds a price target of €46, betting that CircusOS will convert into recurring software revenue early enough to justify tech-sector multiples. Montega initiated coverage with a target of just €10, explicitly tying its valuation to a smooth production ramp and forecasting an operating break-even no earlier than 2027. With the stock changing hands at roughly €6.20, even the lower target implies a 60% upside – but the distance between the two forecasts highlights just how much hinges on commercial adoption.

Investors have voted with their feet anyway. The stock has shed about 48% since January and now trades nearly 74% below its 52-week high of €23.50. Technical indicators show a relative strength index of 35.7, skirting oversold territory, while annualised volatility sits at a elevated 66%. A meaningful recovery will require more than a well-staged government appearance.

The next real catalysts are the quarterly update call on July 16, where management will need to demonstrate how many pilot projects have turned into cash-generating orders, and the annual general meeting on August 20. For now, the Berlin showcase was a reputation-building exercise – important for the narrative, but without a measurable impact on revenue or profit. The market is waiting for contracts, not cameras.