Circus SE’s Software Pivot: Leasing, Military Orders, and the €50 Million Question

Circus SE shifts from kitchen robots to a software platform, launching a leasing model and military robot CA-M two years early, but awaits pilot-to-contract conversions.

Circus SE is no longer content to be known simply as a maker of AI-powered kitchen robots. The Munich-based company is repositioning itself as a software platform operator, with a new leasing model designed to slash sales cycles and a military robot that has passed its prototype tests two years ahead of schedule. But the market is waiting for proof that pilots can become contracts.

A Platform Built on 45,000 Hours of Data

At the heart of the strategy is CircusOS, an operating system that manages the full lifecycle of a robot — from demand planning to predictive maintenance. The platform is trained on more than 45,000 hours of real-world operational data, which Circus has used to develop proprietary visual intelligence models. The long-term ambition is to offer CircusOS as a standalone SaaS product, with API integration into existing enterprise systems, even where no Circus hardware is deployed.

All three robot systems — the CA-1 kitchen robot, the Alberts One, and the military-grade CA-M — will run on the same software architecture. The CA-M, an outdoor robot designed for defense applications, has already cleared its prototype testing phase, and Circus now expects first revenues from the unit in 2026, two years earlier than originally projected.

Leasing Replaces Equity Raises

To accelerate adoption, Circus has introduced a sale-and-leaseback financing structure. A special-purpose vehicle purchases six kitchen robots at €265,000 each and leases them back to Circus for seven years. The company says this model can shorten sales cycles by as much as 70%, replacing the need for a traditional capital increase.

On top of that, Circus has secured an agreement with FINEXITY for additional capital market financing of up to €50 million. The leasing model is designed to lower the barrier for customers who might balk at upfront hardware costs, while generating recurring software revenue streams.

Operational Progress, but Pilots Remain Pilots

The operational picture is improving. System availability climbed from roughly 70% at the start of the quarter to over 90% in April — comfortably above the contractual minimum of 85%. There are currently 17 systems in active deployment or integration across defense, retail, and industrial settings.

On the production side, Circus has halved the manufacturing time for the CA-1 from eight weeks to four, in partnership with Celestica. For 2026, the company plans capacity of 304 units, exceeding the modeled demand of 205 units.

Pilot projects are underway with the Bundeswehr, REWE in Düsseldorf, and the Mercedes-Benz canteen in Sindelfingen. But pilots are not contracts. REWE will not decide on a broad rollout until autumn, and Mercedes-Benz plans deployment in Sindelfingen for summer 2026. The company has not disclosed how many of the 500 previously announced orders have been converted into binding agreements.

The €50 Million Gap Between Ambition and Reality

Management is guiding for 2026 revenue between €44 million and €55 million — a dramatic leap from the €250,000 in revenue and nearly €15 million operating loss recorded in 2025. That forecast hinges on pilot customers signing firm contracts and the planned acquisition of Belgian robotics company Alberts closing before the end of the second quarter.

The Alberts deal, which would immediately add operational infrastructure in six markets, is being paid for in Circus shares with a 30-month lock-up period. The acquisition is expected to close before the end of Q2 2026.

Stock Recovery from Deeply Oversold Levels

Circus shares currently trade at around €8.22, roughly 12% above their 50-day moving average. But the stock remains more than 60% below its 52-week high of €22.80 from November 2025, and has lost nearly 32% year-to-date. The relative strength index stands at 20.5, indicating technically oversold conditions. The stock has recovered significantly from its March low of €5.44, but the rally has been tentative.

The next major catalyst comes in June, when Circus releases its next quarterly report. Management will need to demonstrate that pilot customers have signed binding contracts and that the Alberts acquisition has been completed on schedule. The quarterly update call in July 2026 will serve as the next critical test for the SaaS model — and for whether the company can turn its ambitious narrative into measurable results.