Circus SE's Shares Sink 35% Below December Offer Price Even as Defence Orders Swell

Circus SE stock falls 34% in 2025 as AI robotics firm pivots to military contracts with NATO countries. Production scales to 1,000 units/year; management faces pressure to deliver at Cantor Summit.

The numbers tell a stark story for Circus SE. The Munich-based AI robotics company’s stock closed at €7.95 on Friday, down 1.6% on the day and roughly 34% lower since the start of the year. That puts the equity a staggering 35% below the €12.20 per share at which the company raised capital in December 2025 — a painful discount for anyone who participated in that placement. With management set to appear at the Cantor European Summit in Hamburg on May 20, the pressure to reassure institutional investors is palpable.

While the share price languishes, the business itself is pivoting hard toward military contracts. Under its new “Circus Defence” division, the company is installing autonomous supply systems at military sites. The Bundeswehr and Lithuanian armed forces are already using the robots for troop catering, and Circus is now in active discussions with more than ten additional NATO countries. The defence arm is growing faster than the board originally anticipated and is expected to contribute a significant chunk of overall revenue going forward.

Production is accelerating alongside the sales push. A partnership with Celestica has expanded factory space significantly in the first quarter, and the assembly time for the CA-1 robot has been cut to around four weeks — a dramatic improvement from earlier cycles. The company now aims to produce 1,000 units per year at its existing site, avoiding the need for expensive new facilities. Higher throughput without heavy capital spending could provide margin relief down the line.

The technical picture, however, remains mixed. The stock crossed below its 20-day moving average on Friday, a short-term sell signal that suggests fading momentum. Yet it continues to trade above the 50-day line at €7.41, offering a modest floor. The 200-day average sits far higher, underlining just how far the equity has fallen from its 52-week peak of €22.80 set in November 2025. The next major support level sits at €5.44, the year’s low — a zone that would come into play if the current weakness deepens.

A series of high-stakes events in the coming months will determine whether the operational progress can translate into a share price revival. Management will use the Hamburg conference to showcase the commercialisation and production scaling of the CA-1 system. A detailed second-quarter update is scheduled for July, followed by the annual general meeting in August. After losing more than half its value over the past twelve months, Circus SE needs to deliver hard numbers on defence contracts and manufacturing output — not just promises — to change the narrative on the stock.