Circus SE's Revenue Outlook Collapses to €5.2M, Triggering 50% Share Plunge and Analyst U-Turn

Circus SE slashes 2026 revenue forecast from €55M to €5.2M, widens EBITDA loss, delays rollouts to 2027; shares down 45% in early trade, 80% YTD.

Circus SE saw its stock shed more than half its value on Thursday after the Munich-based robotics company slashed its 2026 revenue forecast from a range of €44 million to €55 million down to just €5.2 million. The shares, which closed Wednesday at €4.94, opened sharply lower and at one point touched €2.40 on Tradegate, representing a decline of over 45% in early trading. The move drove the market capitalization to approximately €111.7 million.

The revised guidance effectively tears up the growth narrative that had supported the stock for months. Management now expects an EBITDA loss of around €17 million, far wider than the earlier projection of €6 million to €8 million. In the prior fiscal year, Circus generated only €1.6 million in revenue against an EBITDA loss of €18.8 million.

Analysts were swift to recalibrate. mwb research cut its price target from €46 to €8.40 — an 82% reduction — and downgraded the stock from a regular buy to a speculative buy. Analyst Oliver Wojahn pointed to persistent supply chain and servicing bottlenecks that have pushed planned system rollouts into 2027. He noted that it remains unclear whether these are temporary setbacks or signs of structural scaling issues.

Circus has outlined a strategic pivot away from broad volume growth toward a focused approach. The company said it will concentrate on select customers in communal catering, institutional clients, and defense — including a planned market entry in Ukraine. Management stressed that it remains adequately financed, a reassurance aimed at quelling liquidity concerns that often accompany such dramatic guidance cuts. According to the company, the decision to delay system deliveries from the second half of 2026 into 2027 is intended to improve unit economics before scaling up.

The stock's collapse extended a brutal run that has wiped out roughly 80% of its value since the start of the year and 64% over the past twelve months. From a 52-week high of €23.50 reached in early November, the shares have fallen nearly 90%. Technical indicators underscore the selling pressure: the stock trades 51% below its 200-day moving average of €10.13, and the relative strength index sits at 34.9, signaling oversold conditions. The 30-day annualized volatility of 69.25% reflects the heightened anxiety surrounding the name.

Investors now face a binary question: whether the delayed scale-up will deliver sustainable margins from 2027 onward, or whether this drastic guidance cut is a precursor to further downward revisions. The company's Q2 operational update, scheduled for July 16, is expected to provide more color on the new roadmap and the viability of its redirected strategy.