Circus SE’s Revenue Leap Hinges on Converting Pilots to Paying Contracts

Despite record quarterly performance, Circus SE shares remain 64% below 2025 highs as investors await binding contracts. Leasing model and CircusOS pivot aim to unlock revenue.

The Hamburg-based robotics company Circus SE has just posted its strongest quarter on record, yet its share price languishes roughly 64% below the 2025 high of €22.80, currently trading at €8.26. While the stock has bounced 41% over the past month, it remains down 31% year-to-date. The disconnect between operational progress and market sentiment underscores a single, stubborn reality: investors are waiting for binding contracts, not pilot projects.

Pilots Are Running, but Revenue Remains Elusive

Circus is currently running trial deployments with the German armed forces, REWE, and Mercedes-Benz’s in-house catering operations. These pilots, however, are not revenue-generating agreements. REWE is expected to decide on a nationwide rollout in the autumn, but until then, the company’s financial trajectory remains speculative.

Management has guided for 2026 revenue between €44 million and €55 million — a staggering leap from last year’s €250,000 in sales. The operating loss in the prior year stood at nearly €15 million. Achieving that target requires the swift conversion of existing pilots into firm, binding contracts. The upcoming quarterly report on June 3 will provide the first hard evidence of whether that conversion is gaining traction.

Leasing Model Lowers the Entry Barrier

To accelerate adoption, Circus has introduced a new financing model. Customers can now access the company’s autonomous systems for a monthly fee starting at €4,000, with no upfront capital expenditure. The leasing program is backed by MMV Leasing, a subsidiary of Landesbank Baden-Württemberg, and Siemens Financial Services. Management expects this structure to shorten sales cycles by as much as 70%.

This approach directly addresses the primary obstacle in industrial robotics: high initial investment costs. Hospitals, caterers, and canteen operators can now lease rather than purchase the systems, potentially unlocking a broader customer base.

From Hardware Seller to Software Platform

Parallel to the leasing push, Circus is repositioning itself as a software company. The proprietary operating system, CircusOS, is being developed into a standalone platform, underpinned by over 45,000 hours of operational data. In collaboration with Meta, kitchen operators are being equipped with Ray-Ban smart glasses that display real-time instructions. Meta Germany is already using a next-generation robot, and the two companies are integrating Meta’s AI models directly into the system.

Longer term, Circus plans to market CircusOS as a software-as-a-service product for third-party kitchens. All three of the company’s robot models will share the same architecture, creating a unified ecosystem that generates recurring revenue rather than one-off hardware sales.

Production Ramp and the Alberts Integration

On the manufacturing side, Circus has halved production time for the CA-1 to roughly four weeks, working with partner Celestica. Capacity is set to rise to 64 units per month by the fourth quarter — exceeding the modelled annual demand of 205 units. Seventeen systems are currently in deployment or integration, with system availability climbing above 90% in April and manual oversight reduced to 90 minutes per day.

The company also has 500 firm orders from around 40 customers, plus thousands of non-binding pre-orders. The planned completion of the Alberts acquisition this summer will be another key milestone, alongside updates on NATO logistics projects.

The Cantor Summit and the June Report

The next major catalyst comes on May 20, when Circus management presents at the Cantor European Summit in Hamburg. Market participants will be looking for concrete details on the Alberts integration, updates on military logistics contracts, and — most critically — how many pre-orders have been converted into binding agreements.

Analysts at mwb research maintain a price target of €46, forecasting revenue at the upper end of management’s guidance at €55 million for 2026. They expect earnings per share to remain negative at minus €0.30 next year, with the first positive figure not arriving until 2027.

The June 3 quarterly report will provide the first real test of whether the company’s ambitious revenue targets are achievable. Until then, the market remains in a holding pattern, waiting for pilots to become profits.