Circus SE's Military Momentum Fails to Stir a Skeptical Market

Robotics firm Circus SE wins NATO contracts but stock remains down 60% from highs. Investor focus is on scaling production to meet backlog and achieve profitability.

Despite a flurry of operational successes, including new NATO contracts and a key acquisition, shares in robotics firm Circus SE remain stubbornly depressed. The stock closed at EUR 9.14, a level that is roughly 60% below its 52-week high from November and still 24% down since the start of the year. This disconnect highlights investor skepticism about the company's ability to convert pilot projects into sustainable revenue.

The company's defense business is delivering tangible progress. Following agreements with the German Bundeswehr and Ukrainian forces, Circus has now won a tender with the Lithuanian military on NATO's eastern flank. Integration of its CA-1 robotic kitchen systems into Lithuanian barracks infrastructure is set to begin this year, with evaluation taking place in military operational and training environments. Preparations are also underway for field catering deployments with the Ukrainian army.

Technical Foundations and Production Bottlenecks

Behind this offensive lies a solidifying technical base. The system availability for the CA-1 generation now exceeds 90%, a critical threshold for credible scaling. Daily manual workload on the units has been reduced to just 1.5 hours, demonstrating growing series maturity. The company has also deepened its cooperation with Meta through the launch of "Operator AI," aimed at making systems more autonomous.

The core challenge, however, is production capacity. Circus currently manufactures 16 units per month against an order backlog of over 550 robots. Management aims to ramp this up to 64 units per month by the fourth quarter of 2026. Achieving this target is crucial for hitting the revenue forecast of EUR 44 to 55 million for that same year. The company still anticipates an EBITDA loss of EUR 6 to 8 million for 2026.

Civilian Uncertainty and Financial Maneuvers

The picture in the civilian sector is less clear. While REWE is testing a system in Düsseldorf and Mercedes-Benz Gastronomie plans a deployment in Sindelfingen by summer 2026, concrete rollouts are pending. REWE will not make a rollout decision until after an eight-month test phase, at the earliest in the summer or autumn. Circus did not disclose how many of its communicated 500 orders have been converted into revenue-generating contracts.

To finance its growth, Circus has placed an asset-backed bond via the FINEXITY platform, raising EUR 1.67 million. The bond carries a 6.0% coupon, matures in April 2031, and is secured by the cooking robots themselves. This pilot transaction is part of a framework agreement for potential follow-on tranches of up to EUR 50 million. The company's operating loss widened to nearly EUR 15 million in the first quarter.

In a show of confidence, CEO Nikolas Bullwinkel and Administrative Board Chairman Dr. Jan-Christian Heins made several open-market purchases of company shares during the quarter. Analyst firm mwb research maintains a buy recommendation with a price target of EUR 46.00, over five times the current share price.

The coming months present critical milestones. The final acquisition of Belgian food robotics specialist Alberts, planned for the second quarter of 2026, is expected to open avenues in space-constrained urban environments. Furthermore, confirmation of stable supply chains for the production ramp-up and the conclusion of pilot phases with key clients like REWE and the Bundeswehr, expected by autumn, will be decisive tests of whether operational dynamism can finally translate into financial performance.