Circus SE's Defense Pivot Drives Record Quarter, But Stock Remains Stuck in the Trenches

AI robotics firm Circus SE reports strongest quarter ever, but shares fall 64% from highs. Defense deals with NATO and Ukraine accelerate, with production capacity set to triple.

Circus SE has just reported its strongest quarter in company history, yet the market reaction has been anything but celebratory. The Munich-based AI robotics firm, best known for its kitchen automation technology, is rapidly reinventing itself as a defense contractor — and the transformation is happening faster than even management anticipated.

The disconnect between operational momentum and share price performance is stark. At €8.27, the stock sits roughly 64% below its 52-week high and has shed more than 31% of its value since the start of 2026, despite a modest recovery from the March trough of €5.44. Over a 12-month horizon, the decline is even more pronounced at approximately 45%.

Defense Contracts Accelerate Ahead of Schedule

The most striking development in Circus's first-quarter update is the speed at which its military business is gaining traction. The company has already integrated its technology with the German armed forces at a secured military facility — a first for the firm. On April 9, it secured a procurement contract from the Lithuanian military, which plans to deploy a fully autonomous AI robot for tactical troop supply operations in Vilnius.

Beyond these initial wins, Circus is actively negotiating with more than ten NATO member states and is preparing deliveries to support Ukrainian soldiers. The military-grade outdoor robot, designated the CA-M, has successfully passed its prototype testing phase and is expected to generate revenue as early as 2026 — two years ahead of the original timeline.

Production Ramp and Software Ambitions

On the manufacturing front, Circus has made significant strides alongside its production partner Celestica. The assembly time for the CA-1 robot has been halved from roughly eight weeks to around four weeks. After producing 16 units in the first quarter, the company plans to scale capacity to 64 units per month by the fourth quarter, targeting total annual capacity of 304 units for 2026. That figure comfortably exceeds the modeled demand of 205 units.

The company's longer-term ambition is even more aggressive: a production capacity of 1,000 units annually without requiring substantial additional infrastructure investment.

System reliability has also improved markedly, climbing from approximately 70% at the start of the quarter to over 90% by April — surpassing the contractual minimum of 85%. Currently, 17 robotic systems are either operational or in the integration phase, spanning defense, retail, and industrial applications. Each system requires roughly 90 minutes of manual oversight per day, keeping operating costs manageable for customers.

Circus is simultaneously building a second revenue pillar in software. Drawing on more than 45,000 hours of operational data, the company has developed proprietary visual intelligence models. In partnership with Meta, kitchen operators are being equipped with Ray-Ban smart glasses that display real-time operating instructions. The long-term vision is to market this technology as a standalone SaaS product for third-party kitchens, complete with API integrations into existing enterprise systems.

Revenue Forecast Hinges on Contract Conversion

Management has set a revenue target of €44 million to €55 million for 2026 — a dramatic leap from the €250,000 in sales recorded in 2025, when the operating loss stood at nearly €15 million. The feasibility of this forecast depends heavily on whether pilot projects convert into binding contracts. REWE, for instance, is not expected to decide on a broad rollout until autumn.

New leasing models, backed by financing partners, are designed to shorten sales cycles by up to 70%, lowering the entry barrier for capital-conscious customers. The next major checkpoint arrives on July 16, 2026, when Circus holds its quarterly operational update call. By then, investors will expect to see whether defense orders and production scaling are translating into measurable quarterly revenue — or whether the gap between operational progress and market skepticism will only widen further.