Circus SE's Civilian Setback Contrasts with Battlefield Progress After Revenue Guidance Slashed

Circus SE slashes 2026 revenue forecast by 90% to €5.2M, shares plummet 56% as military food robots deploy in Ukraine while commercial delays mount.

The same day Circus SE began deploying autonomous meal systems to feed Ukrainian soldiers near Kyiv, the company slashed its 2026 revenue forecast by nearly 90% — a stark illustration of its diverging fortunes in military and commercial markets. The stock has since fallen 56.69% over the past week to €2.06, adding a 4.64% decline on the day, as investors grapple with a corporate narrative split between operational achievement and commercial collapse.

Management now expects full-year revenue of just €5.2 million, down from a previous range of €44 million to €55 million, blaming delays in the rollout of its autonomous food-service systems. The company opted to push deployments into 2027 to refine unit economics before scaling further, a decision that also pushed the projected EBITDA loss to around €17 million from an earlier estimate of between €6 million and €8 million. The revised guidance triggered heavy selling that knocked the shares to levels last seen before the company's earlier growth narrative took hold.

Montega AG responded by downgrading the stock to "Hold" from "Buy" and slashing its price target to €2.20 from €10.00 — a 78% cut. Analyst Bastian Brach cited the operational bottlenecks that forced the guidance revision. The shares currently trade just below that target, with a relative strength index of 13.7 indicating deeply oversold conditions and 30-day annualized volatility at 146.65%.

Despite the headwinds, Circus has pressed ahead with expansion. In early July it completed the acquisition of Belgian food-robotics specialist Alberts, and in late April it fully acquired Kitchen Robotics, including all patents and software IP, to accelerate its US market entry. Regulatory approval from the UAE food safety authority on July 1 cleared the way for a commercial rollout in Abu Dhabi. These moves, however, have done little to stem the stock's slide.

On the same day as the profit warning, Circus named Christian Bauer, a former aviation and automotive executive, as its new co-CEO and CFO — a position announced ten days earlier but kept confidential until then. The company also began live deployment of its autonomous feeding systems for the Ukrainian army's 3rd Assault Brigade near Kyiv, marking the technology's first use in an active conflict zone. The defence division, launched in April, appears to be delivering on its promise, even as the commercial side struggles.

Circus's 2025 audited results, released in late June, underscore how early-stage the company remains: revenue reached just €1.56 million and unadjusted EBITDA was negative €18.5 million. Shareholders will have their next opportunity to question management at the annual general meeting on August 20, to be held virtually, where the new co-CEO is expected to face queries about the sharp reversal in growth expectations.