Circus SE’s Berlin Vision Collides with Market Skepticism Ahead of Crucial June Deadlines

Despite a polished pitch at Handelsblatt, Circus SE shares continue to slide amid heavy losses, pending acquisition dilution, and a critical July update call.

Circus SE chief executive Nikolas Bullwinkel commanded the stage in Berlin this week, delivering a keynote on autonomous retail gastronomy and smart convenience solutions at the Handelsblatt annual conference. The optics were pristine: a forward-looking AI robotics pitch in front of Rewe’s top brass. But back in Frankfurt, shareholders were nursing a headache. No new orders or partnerships materialised from the appearance, and the stock’s trajectory tells a very different story from the CEO’s upbeat narrative.

The shares closed Monday at €6.76 and have since slipped to around €6.65, leaving the company nursing a loss of roughly 45% since the start of the year. The distance from the 200-day moving average of €11.26 underscores just how deep the market’s scepticism runs. Investors are not buying the vision until they see hard revenue conversions.

Losses cast a long shadow over the growth pitch

The 2024 preliminary accounts explain the mood. Circus generated sales of only €1.5 million last year while posting an adjusted operating loss of €15.3 million. Management blames the late start to system deliveries, but for now the numbers offer little comfort. The audited version of those accounts must be delivered by the end of June, giving the market its first verified check on the cost structure — particularly the one-off expenses from previous capital raises that must prove genuinely non-recurring.

Three deadlines collide in the coming weeks

June is shaping up as a pressure cooker. On top of the audited report, Circus aims to close its acquisition of Belgian food-robotics firm Alberts by the end of the second quarter. The deal fills a gap in the portfolio with small-footprint systems — each requiring only one square metre — that open up offices and clinics as target segments. Alberts also brings existing relationships with Danone and Decathlon. Yet the purchase price remains undisclosed until closing, and the entire consideration is being paid in Circus shares subject to a 30-month lock-up. The resulting dilution for existing holders is entirely unknown, and management has not raised the 2025 revenue forecast of €44 million to €55 million despite the addition.

Defence division accelerates ahead of plan

One bright spot emerges from an unexpected corner. The military outdoor robot CAM has passed prototype testing and is expected to generate first revenues this year — two years ahead of schedule. Circus says it is in talks with more than ten NATO member states and has already started an integration process for deliveries to Ukrainian forces.

On the civilian side, production time for the flagship CA-1 model has been reduced to around four weeks, while system availability has climbed to 92%. The challenge now is to convert pilot projects into cash-generating contracts.

Next checkpoint: the 16 July update call

The quarterly update call on 16 July will be the next major credibility test. Management will need to show concrete order intake to back the €44 million–€55 million full-year target. Until then, the market is likely to remain in wait-and-see mode, with the Alberts closing ratio and audited report offering the next hard data points to either vindicate or further undermine the bull case.