Circus SE Faces Make-or-Break Report as Software Subscriptions and Defense Orders Aim to Justify a 200x Revenue Jump

Circus SE aims to leap from €250K to €55M in revenue by 2026, pivoting to software and defense. Q1 report in June will test market faith.

The gap between vision and numbers doesn’t get much wider. Circus SE, the Munich-based AI robotics company, generated just €250,000 in revenue last year. For 2026, management is targeting a Leichtathletik-worthy leap to between €44 million and €55 million. The market remains deeply sceptical: the stock has shed roughly a third of its value since January, closing at €8.12 — far below the 52-week high of €22.80 and still only modestly above the March trough of €5.44.

That scepticism could be put to the test as early as June, when Circus is due to publish its first-quarter 2026 report. The document will be the first real proof point in a year that promises to be decisive. Investors will be watching closely whether the company can back up its aggressive growth narrative with hard numbers – particularly on the conversion of pilot projects into recurring revenue.

Software takes centre stage

Circus is orchestrating a radical strategic pivot. Instead of selling robots as one-off hardware, it wants to become a platform business built on CircusOS, an operating system designed to manage the entire robot lifecycle — from demand planning to predictive maintenance. The long-term plan is to offer CircusOS as a pure Software-as-a-Service product with API hooks into third-party enterprise systems.

To accelerate development, Circus has tapped Meta as a technology partner. Kitchen operators are testing Ray-Ban smart glasses that overlay real-time instructions, while Meta’s AI models are being integrated directly into CircusOS to enable self-learning capabilities.

The company also claims a sizeable data moat: more than 45,000 hours of operational data from its installed base, used to train proprietary visual-intelligence models. That data advantage is expected to underpin the SaaS offering’s appeal.

Military orders add a second engine

Alongside the software push, Circus is leaning hard into defence. The company recently completed its first integration at a secured Bundeswehr site, and in April it won a procurement contract with the Lithuanian armed forces for an autonomous military robot. The CA-M outdoor robot is now slated to deliver its first revenues in 2026 — two years earlier than originally envisaged.

Active talks with more than ten NATO member states are under way. The defence segment offers not only larger, more predictable contracts but also a credibility boost for the underlying technology. However, long procurement cycles and stringent reliability requirements mean the pay-off may take time.

Leasing and acquisitions lower the bar to entry

To speed up commercial adoption, Circus has overhauled its financing models. Through partnerships with Siemens Financial Services and MM Fowleasing, the CA-1 kitchen robot can now be leased from around €4,000 per month, eliminating upfront capital expenditure and cutting sales cycles by up to 70%.

On the corporate development front, Circus is acquiring Alberts, a provider of autonomous supply systems, in an all-share deal subject to a 30-month lock-up. The transaction is expected to close by the end of the current quarter. Separately, the company has structured bond placements via the FINEXITY platform with a total framework volume of up to €50 million.

The hard numbers behind the story

Currently, Circus has around 500 firm orders from approximately 40 customers. Another 8,000-plus non-binding pre-orders carry a potential value of more than €1.6 billion — but the market is rightly focused on the conversion rate from signing to delivery.

Production is ramping up. Assembly time per robot has been compressed to about four weeks; 16 units were built in the first quarter. Management aims to push the monthly output to 64 systems by the end of this year. Even so, the EBITDA loss is forecast at €6-8 million for 2026, a significant improvement from last year’s €15 million deficit but still firmly in the red. Montega, the first analyst to initiate coverage, expects Circus to turn profitable in 2027.

Analyst consensus remains optimistic despite the share price weakness. The average 12-month price target stands at €35.20, with a range of €19 to €46. mwb research has set its target at €46, while Montega issued a buy recommendation with a €10 target. No sell ratings are on the books.

The June moment of truth

The quarterly report due in June will show whether the company’s dual-engine strategy is gaining traction. Key items on the checklist include contract conversions from pilot partners such as REWE, which is not expected to decide on a broader rollout until autumn, and Mercedes-Benz, which plans deployment in Sindelfingen for summer 2026. The successful closure of the Alberts acquisition and progress in defence procurement will also be scrutinised.

If Circus can demonstrate tangible progress on all those fronts, the revenue target will start to look less like a leap of faith. If not, the chasm between promise and performance will remain the central obstacle to any sustained recovery in the shares.