Circus SE Faces a Summer of Truth as Military and Retail Pilots Converge

German robotics firm Circus SE targets €55M revenue in 2024, driven by military deals and REWE pilot, as production scales and shares surge 48%.

The gap between ambition and revenue at Circus SE remains cavernous, but the German robotics company is closing it from multiple directions at once. With just €250,000 in sales last year against double-digit million losses, management’s projection of up to €55 million in turnover for 2024 hinges entirely on converting test programs into binding series contracts. Two pivotal decisions are now approaching in parallel.

On the military front, Circus Defence has achieved its first formal acceptance by the German armed forces, with systems now deployed on a secured Bundeswehr base. The subsidiary is already in active discussions with more than ten NATO member states about potential deliveries, while simultaneously integrating its technology for use by Ukrainian soldiers. This follows the start of fourth-generation series production in the first quarter, with nearly two dozen units now either operational or in deployment.

The civilian track is no less critical. REWE, the German retail giant, is wrapping up an eight-month pilot phase for Circus’s CA-1 AI cooking robot in Düsseldorf. A positive verdict this summer would hand the company its most valuable reference customer to date. Separately, a contract for autonomous food supply in military barracks has been running since January, and Mercedes-Benz’s in-house catering arm plans to deploy the robots at its Sindelfingen plant from summer 2026.

Production capacity is scaling to meet potential demand. Manufacturing partner Celestica has slashed assembly time to four weeks, half the previous duration. At the existing site, Circus aims to produce 1,000 units annually without costly new construction. A new leasing model has cut sales cycles by up to 70 percent by eliminating large upfront investments, and the order book now stands at 500 firm orders from roughly 40 customers.

Operational metrics are improving. System availability climbed above 90 percent in April, while manual staffing requirements per machine have fallen to around 1.5 hours daily. Seventeen robotic systems are currently in use or integration, up from the two dozen figure that includes units still in setup.

The stock market has taken notice of the operational progress, with shares surging roughly 48 percent over the past 30 days to €8.27. Yet the longer-term picture remains deeply negative: the stock has lost about a third of its value since the start of the year, and the annualized volatility above 100 percent underscores persistent investor nervousness. The relative strength index signals heavily oversold conditions, while the path back to the old high of nearly €23 remains distant.

The next catalyst arrives on July 16, when management presents its quarterly operational update. By then, the market will expect concrete details on the REWE partnership and further deliveries. Until pilot programs become binding series contracts, the ambitious revenue target for this year remains a leap of faith. Before that, the company will present at the Cantor European Summit in May, offering an earlier opportunity to demonstrate momentum.