Circus SE: A High-Stakes Gamble on Pilot Programs

Circus SE projects a 100x revenue jump to €55M in 2026, but its forecast hinges on converting 8,000+ non-binding AI kitchen robot pre-orders into firm contracts.

The financial trajectory projected by Circus SE presents a story of dramatic contrasts. For the fiscal year 2025, the company reported revenue of €250,000 alongside an operating loss nearing €15 million. Management’s forecast for 2026, however, paints a radically different picture: anticipated sales of between €44 million and €55 million. This leap, representing a potential hundredfold increase, rests on a foundation that market observers are calling decidedly fragile.

The Core Issue: Letters of Intent Versus Firm Orders

The central challenge is structural. While Circus boasts over 8,000 pre-orders for its CA-1 AI kitchen robot—a theoretical pipeline exceeding €1.6 billion—the vast majority are not binding contracts. They are pilot phases and letters of intent. The conversion of these prospects into firm purchase agreements remains the critical, unanswered question for the company’s valuation.

An examination of the CA-1’s reference clients reveals both promise and uncertainty. The German Bundeswehr is testing the system in a barracks, Ukrainian armed forces have signed an agreement for up to 25 units, and retailer REWE is conducting a trial in a "Fresh & Smart" store in Düsseldorf-Heerdt. Mercedes-Benz Gastronomie is confirmed as a customer for a site in Sindelfingen, with operations slated to begin this summer.

Yet a consistent pattern emerges. The Bundeswehr unit is not yet operational, and REWE will only decide on a potential rollout after an eight-week evaluation period, with a decision expected no earlier than summer, possibly autumn. Each pilot program will only mature into a firm order if the client’s internal review and customer surveys yield a positive result.

Capacity Built, Demand Unproven

On the production side, Circus has laid the groundwork. Manufacturing partner Celestica has completed the industrialization process for the CA-1, with capacity designed for four-digit unit volumes. For the defense sector, the company plans a second European production site targeting an output of more than 10,000 units. This established capacity creates a stark gap with the current, unconfirmed demand.

Financially, Circus has taken steps to bolster its position. To ease customer adoption, it entered a leasing partnership with MMV Leasing, a subsidiary of LBBW. Additionally, just prior to its investor day, the company issued a mini-bond raising approximately €1.67 million. This sale-and-leaseback structure was designed to generate liquidity without diluting existing shareholders. By the end of 2025, the firm had already secured around €30 million from institutional investors.

Market Skepticism and a Pivotal Deadline

The investor day held in Munich on March 28 was intended to restore market confidence. Instead, shares continued to decline. Since the start of the year, Circus SE stock has lost approximately 49% of its value. At a recent price of €6.20, it trades significantly below its 200-day moving average of €13.04.

Paradoxically, the broader economic climate provides a structural tailwind for Circus’s business model. Insolvencies in the German gastronomy sector rose by nearly 30% in 2025. Since 2022, costs for goods, personnel, and energy have increased by up to 40% in some cases. This growing pressure on the industry could potentially heighten willingness to invest in automation solutions.

The ultimate test of management’s €44 million-plus forecast will arrive on June 3, 2026, when Circus publishes its next quarterly report. By that time, the market will know whether key clients like REWE and the Bundeswehr have transitioned from testing phases to signing firm contracts. Until then, the company’s ambitious growth narrative remains precisely that—a narrative awaiting validation.