Chip ETF’s Inflection Point: ASML and TSMC Earnings to Follow SK Hynix’s Record Nasdaq Debut

iShares Global Semiconductors ETF slips 0.78% Friday, down 1.55% for the week, but YTD gains top 92%. SK Hynix's record $26.5B IPO and upcoming ASML/TSMC earnings test AI-driven rally.

The iShares MSCI Global Semiconductors UCITS ETF closed Friday at €19.00, slipping 0.78% on the day and 1.55% on the week, yet the year-to-date advance stands at a staggering 92.44%. That headline number masks a more conflicted picture: the fund sits 11.73% below its June 22 all-time high of €21.52, having reversed sharply after hitting that peak. From a November 2025 low of €8.35, however, it has more than doubled — a 127.44% gain that underscores the sector’s ferocious momentum. This week, two decisive events will test whether that momentum has more room to run or is exhausting itself.

SK Hynix made history on Friday by raising $26.5 billion in the largest equity sale by a foreign company on the Nasdaq. The memory-chip maker’s American depositary receipts jumped 13% on debut, closing at $168.01 after pricing at $149. The offering was multiple times oversubscribed, with $5 billion of ADRs allocated to anchor investors Baillie Gifford, Coatue Management and Situational Awareness Partners. CEO Kwak Noh-Jung called it a “proud and historic day” and reiterated the company’s central role in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for artificial intelligence. The proceeds will fund lithography tools and new fabrication capacity. SK Hynix now accounts for roughly 5% of the ETF’s portfolio, alongside heavyweights such as Broadcom (7.97%), Micron Technology (7.42%), Nvidia (7.11%), Taiwan Semiconductor (6.90%) and ASML Holding (6.76%).

Yet the IPO lands in a memory-stock bear market. Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix and the Roundhill Memory ETF are all more than 20% below their recent closing highs — a dramatic turn for a segment that was among 2026’s hottest trades. The broader semiconductor sector has lost about $1.5 trillion in market value since June 25, when a sudden selloff hit Micron (?8.5%), Intel (?7.6%) and Nvidia (?3%). BTIG analyst Jonathan Krinsky described repeated daily swings near record levels as a pattern that “at best suggests a prolonged consolidation, and at worst a more meaningful top.” The ETF’s 30-day annualized volatility of 70.65% reflects just how violently it can react to news from its top holdings.

Against this turbulent backdrop, ASML and TSMC — two of the fund’s five largest positions — report quarterly earnings this week. ASML publishes Wednesday, TSMC on Thursday. Their numbers are widely viewed as a litmus test for the AI-driven chip rally. Investors will focus on whether TSMC raises its 2026 growth forecast and on its planned capital expenditure, especially after SK Hynix’s massive capital raise and Micron’s recent announcement that it will boost U.S. fab investments to $250 billion. On the positive side, Broadcom and Apple recently extended their chip partnership through 2031 in a deal valued at $30 billion, a tailwind that helped lift the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.

The macro calendar adds further layers. U.S. June inflation data lands Tuesday, the same day Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh delivers his semiannual congressional testimony. The producer price index follows Wednesday. The CME FedWatch Tool currently prices a 61% probability of a September rate cut — a critical variable for high-valuation semiconductor stocks that are acutely sensitive to changes in the discount rate. U.S. bank earnings also kick off Tuesday; analysts at LSEG IBES expect second-quarter S&P 500 profits to have risen 23.4% year over year.

Technically, the ETF is trading 3.86% above its 50-day moving average of €18.29, a level it has been hugging after recent swings. The relative strength index of 50.0 places the fund squarely in neutral territory — neither overbought nor oversold — leaving ample room for a sharp move in either direction on strong or disappointing earnings from ASML and TSMC. The annualized 30-day volatility of 70.65% warns that any surprise could trigger outsized price action.

SK Hynix’s Nasdaq listing is scheduled to close formally on July 14, with a secondary listing on the Korea Exchange expected by month’s end. Both events could keep pressure on the ETF’s memory-heavy components. Analysts also see the IPO potentially narrowing the valuation gap between SK Hynix and U.S. rival Micron: SK Hynix shares traded in Seoul have historically carried a lower price-to-earnings multiple despite comparable or superior fundamentals.

For holders of the iShares MSCI Global Semiconductors UCITS ETF, the week ahead crystallizes the central tension of the AI trade. A record-breaking IPO, a memory sector in retreat, earnings from two dominant industry players and a potential shift in monetary policy are converging into a single, defining moment. Where the fund goes from here will depend on whether the numbers from ASML and TSMC confirm that the AI buildout still has steam — or that the market has already priced in too much optimism.