Chip ETF Draws $629M in New Money Even as Profit-Taking Bites — Nvidia Earnings Loom

Fresh capital pours into VanEck Semiconductor ETF as price dips; Nvidia earnings on May 20 and TSMC expansion are key near-term catalysts for the chip sector.

Fresh capital continues to pour into semiconductor equities even as the recent rally shows signs of exhaustion. The VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF pulled in net inflows of $629.49 million over five trading sessions last week — a vote of confidence from institutional investors that stands in stark contrast to the fund’s short-term price action.

The ETF closed on Friday at €86.74, shedding 3.62% on the day and 1.51% over the week. That dip has not yet turned into a trend reversal, but it reflects a market taking profits after a blistering run. Year-to-date, the fund remains up 57.82%, while the relative strength index sits at 71.2 — a reading that signals the sector is technically stretched and vulnerable to any disappointing news.

Nvidia’s next earnings report on May 20 is shaping up as the industry’s biggest near-term catalyst. The stock slipped 4.4% to $225.32 on Friday, putting additional pressure on the semiconductor-heavy ETF. Analysts are forecasting Nvidia revenue of around $78 billion, which would mark a 77% jump from a year earlier. That kind of growth hinges on sustained demand for AI graphics processors, and Nvidia’s forward guidance — particularly on margins and supply-chain outlook — will be critical for sentiment across the entire chip space.

The company has also been building out its AI ecosystem through strategic moves. A fresh $2 billion investment in Marvell Technology aims to deepen integration of networking components into AI data centers, while US export approvals have opened the door for certain Chinese buyers to purchase Nvidia’s H200 chips. These developments reinforce Nvidia’s role as the primary driver for the VanEck ETF, which tracks a US-listed index of semiconductor and equipment stocks with full replication and an ESG filter.

TSMC remains another heavy-weight anchor for the fund, though its stock has given back some ground after hitting record highs. The Taiwanese chipmaker has gained 33.2% year-to-date and continues to deliver robust fundamentals. High-performance computing already accounts for 61% of its revenue, and management has guided for full-year sales growth of more than 30%. To meet surging demand, TSMC plans to invest between $52 billion and $56 billion this year — much of it directed toward expanding global capacity, including its Arizona fabrication plants. The company also announced a higher dividend, reflecting confidence in its cash-flow generation.

Intel tells a different story. Its shares have more than doubled — up roughly 200% since the start of 2026 — but the operational picture remains under scrutiny. Competitive pressure from AMD and Arm in the server market persists, and early details of a foundry deal with Apple suggest it will cover simpler, older chip designs rather than leading-edge nodes. The jump in Intel’s stock price has raised expectations that will need to be met with tangible execution.

Specialty players are also adding spice to the ETF’s performance. Tower Semiconductor soared nearly 30% in a single week after securing $1.3 billion in silicon-photonics supply contracts. KLA Corporation announced a 10-for-1 stock split, with split-adjusted trading expected to begin in mid-June — a move that can improve liquidity without altering underlying valuations.

The fund’s structure caps any single holding at 10% to reduce concentration risk, but that does little to temper the rich valuations across the sector. The price-to-earnings ratio stands at 45.37 and the price-to-book ratio at 10.27, leaving little room for error. With nearly 5,000 out of 6,600 tracked institutional investors adding to chip positions, the long-term conviction is clear. But short-term volatility is inevitable when the technical setup is overheated and the biggest report of the quarter is just around the corner.

All eyes now turn to May 20. A strong Nvidia outlook could reinforce the narrative that AI-driven demand is still accelerating, potentially drawing fresh inflows into the VanEck Semiconductor ETF. A cautious tone, on the other hand, could turn the recent 3.62% drop into something more than just profit-taking.