Carrier Global Shares: A Contradictory Investment Picture

Carrier Global Corp US14448C1045

Carrier Global Corp's stock is navigating turbulent waters, presenting investors with a complex set of signals. While the share price faces significant downward pressure, corporate actions reveal a management team confident in the company's long-term value. This juxtaposition of market skepticism and internal confidence defines the current investment thesis for the HVAC and refrigeration giant.

The company's most recent quarterly report for Q3 2025 painted a decidedly mixed picture. On the positive side, Carrier's adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.67, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.57. However, this earnings beat was overshadowed by a revenue shortfall. Total revenue reached $5.58 billion, missing analyst projections of $5.65 billion. This represented a 7% year-over-year decline in net sales, with organic sales dropping by 4%.

Performance across business segments was uneven. The Residential HVAC division in the Americas showed notable weakness, acting as a drag on overall results. Conversely, the Commercial HVAC business in the same region delivered a robust growth figure of 30%, highlighting a divergence in market dynamics. This fundamental inconsistency is reflected in the share price, which closed at €45.86 in the latest session. Year-to-date, the equity has declined approximately 31%, trading roughly 35% below its 52-week high.

Corporate Confidence: Shareholder Returns and Institutional Support

Despite the challenging operational backdrop, Carrier's board and major investors are signaling belief in the company's future. A substantial share repurchase program authorized in late October stands as the clearest evidence. The board approved a new $5.0 billion buyback initiative, which could retire up to 10.1% of outstanding shares. By the end of the third quarter, the company had already returned about $3.0 billion to shareholders year-to-date, with $2.4 billion of that deployed for share repurchases.

Furthermore, the quarterly cash dividend saw a slight increase to $0.24 per share. The ex-dividend date is set for January 20, 2026, with payment following on February 9, 2026. Institutional ownership remains overwhelmingly high at around 91%, with significant holders like State Street and CalPERS marginally increasing their positions during Q2 2025.

Management has also pinpointed a specific growth catalyst: the data center solutions business. Carrier anticipates revenue in this specialized segment will reach approximately $1 billion this year and reports a backlog of orders extending through 2028, suggesting sustained future demand.

Market Sentiment and Forward Guidance

The analyst community has adopted a cautious stance in response to the conflicting data. Several prominent firms have recently revised their price targets downward. RBC lowered its target from $75 to $70, JPMorgan adjusted from $61 to $60, and Morgan Stanley made a more significant cut from $75 to $60. The current consensus rating sits at "Hold," with an average price target near $72.40. The range of opinions is broad, with one provider even classifying Carrier as a "Sell" candidate.

For the full year 2025, management maintains an adjusted EPS guidance of approximately $2.65. In the near term, the expanded buyback program, the raised dividend, and the potential in the data center segment provide elements of support. These are counterbalanced by persistent headwinds, including declining revenues, organic growth that continues to disappoint, and the downward revisions from market analysts.

Conclusion: Carrier Global is employing potent tools for capital return to establish a floor under its stock price. However, a durable recovery and sustained upward trajectory will likely require a return to stable revenue growth and the continued successful execution in its targeted high-growth niches like data center cooling. Key upcoming milestones for investors include the January 2026 ex-dividend date and, more critically, the trajectory of organic sales in subsequent quarterly reports.