BYD Stock Near 52-Week Low as 100,000 SUV Pre-Orders and Record Exports Clash with a 55% Profit Plunge

BYD's H-shares slide 15.7% amid domestic price war and Q1 profit collapse, even as overseas shipments surge 60% and new SUV Datang draws massive pre-orders.

BYD finds itself in a deeply contradictory moment. Its H-shares are languishing at HK$90.30 — dangerously close to the 52-week trough of HK$88.50 — even as the company books record overseas shipments and racks up more than 100,000 pre-orders for a new SUV. The stock has shed roughly 15.7% over the past month, reflecting a market that is far more focused on a brutal home-market price war and a first-quarter profit collapse than on signs of demand strength abroad.

The most immediate test of that demand comes on June 8, when BYD will finally launch the Datang, a three-row SUV originally slated for a May debut. The delay is itself telling: the company says production capacity cannot keep pace with the flood of pre-orders that arrived after the vehicle’s first reveal. The Datang packs the new Blade Battery 2.0 and a fast-charging system that can take the battery from 10% to 70% in roughly five minutes, with a claimed range of up to 950 kilometers. Priced at around 33,000 euros in China, it targets the family-oriented mass market head-on. A smaller sibling, the Song Ultra — equipped with roof-mounted lidar and advanced driver-assistance features — is also seeing sustained interest.

The production bottleneck is a symptom of a broader challenge: BYD’s export engine is roaring even as its domestic gearbox sputters. In the first four months of 2026, the group shipped 456,263 vehicles overseas — a 60% jump from the same period a year earlier. April alone saw overseas sales surge 71% to 134,542 units, helped by rising gasoline prices after the Iran conflict boosted demand for electric cars. Overseas deliveries now account for 46% of total sales in the first quarter. Yet back in China, overall deliveries fell for the eighth consecutive month in April, caught in a wave of discounting, shrinking margins, and a string of bankruptcies among local EV rivals.

The financial damage showed up clearly in the first quarter. Revenue dropped nearly 12% to 150.23 billion renminbi, while net profit tumbled 55% to 4.08 billion renminbi. Goldman Sachs called the quarter a likely trough, maintaining its buy rating with a HK$134 target. The broader analyst consensus sits at HK$124, with estimates ranging from HK$86.99 to HK$147.

Looking ahead, BYD’s management is seeking ammunition for the next phase of expansion. At the annual general meeting in Shenzhen on June 9, shareholders will vote on a credit guarantee framework worth up to 150 billion renminbi — roughly $20 billion — to back loans for the group’s subsidiaries and affiliates. The proposal sets caps based on each subsidiary’s debt level and explicitly excludes guarantees for board members or unrelated third parties. The AGM will also confirm Ernst & Young Hua Ming as the sole auditor for 2026.

For longer-term holders, the June 11 ex-dividend date offers a HK$0.358 per share payout for fiscal 2025. That is a steep drop from the HK$4.34 paid for fiscal 2024, though based on the mid-May price of HK$96.45 it implied a yield of 4.5%. At the current share price the yield is higher, but the dividend will only cushion the stock if the market’s mood improves.

The near-term catalysts are dense. Any day now, BYD will release its May delivery figures — a key gauge of whether the company has managed to stabilise its domestic market share after a period of expiring subsidies. Meanwhile, plug-in hybrids are growing faster than pure battery-electric vehicles in its mix, and the group is banking on its fifth-generation hybrid technology and new BEV platforms to reignite growth in the second half.

On the European front, BYD is pressing ahead with factory plans, having held site visits to multiple idle plants with Stellantis and other manufacturers. Vice president Stella Li confirmed that Italy is on the shortlist, while France is seen as a longer-term target partly due to low electricity costs. Producing inside the bloc would dodge the 17% to 35% punitive tariffs the EU imposed on Chinese EVs in 2024. BYD prefers outright acquisitions over joint ventures.

With the Datang launch, the AGM vote, the May sales numbers, and the ex-dividend date all packed into a single week, the immediate future will tell investors whether BYD can convert its impressive order backlog and export momentum into the earnings recovery that Goldman and others anticipate. The next quarterly report is due on August 28.