BYD Stock Climbs 20% from June Low on Record Exports, but Profit Wounds Remain Open

BYD shares rally 20% from 52-week low on record June exports, but domestic sales plunge 22% and profits fall for fourth straight quarter amid China's price war.

BYD shares have staged a sharp recovery from their 52-week trough, closing Friday at €9.58 after rallying around 20% from the €8.03 low hit in late June. The trigger was a familiar one — a blockbuster sales number rather than a profit surprise. The company sold just over 403,000 vehicles in June, powering its stock up roughly 9% on the day. Yet beneath the volume headline lies a deeply fragmented picture that investors are only beginning to price in.

Two Worlds at War

June’s total masked a stark divergence. Overseas deliveries surged to a record 175,349 units, a 94.73% jump year-on-year, and accounted for 43.46% of the month’s entire sales. At home, however, BYD handed over just 228,123 vehicles to Chinese customers — a 22.02% decline from the same month last year. That split defined the first half of 2025: overall NEV sales reached 1,808,511 units, down 15.72%, while exports nearly doubled to 792,256 units, up 70.65%. The company has already cleared more than half of its original annual export target.

The question dividing analysts is whether the export engine can rev fast enough to compensate for the domestic drag — and before the profit damage becomes permanent.

The Profit Squeeze

The price war in China has been brutal. BYD has posted four consecutive quarters of falling net profit, with the first quarter alone seeing a 55% plunge. Discounts reached a two-year high in March as rivals like Xiaomi and Geely forced the company to compete aggressively for market share. That pressure shows no signs of easing. BYD’s domestic market is awash with inventory; the record backlog of unsold vehicles exerts constant downward pressure on pricing and margins.

Overseas margins are typically higher, but they face headwinds of their own. EU tariffs implemented in 2024 have already eroded profitability in Europe. South Korea dealt another blow at the start of July, removing EV subsidies for BYD models, forcing the company to offer its own incentives. Geopolitical friction and a potential second production site — with Spain and France emerging as front-runners — are longer-term replies, not immediate remedies.

The Bull's Case: Speed and Scale

Optimists point to the sheer momentum in the export channel. In May, Chinese automakers overtook Japanese brands in European sales for the first time. BYD’s own overseas traction is visible in markets like Australia, where it sold nearly 19,000 vehicles in June, closing in on market leader Toyota. The company plans a series of new model launches abroad, potentially sustaining the double-digit growth rates seen in recent months.

The new Sealion 08 sedan, aimed at the lucrative limousine segment, bundles high-end features such as the “Eye of God” driving system. Analysts believe such exclusive equipment could lift average selling prices and help rebuild margins — if the product resonates internationally. The stock’s sharp rebound from its trough suggests the market is willing to look past domestic weakness as long as the export narrative stays intact.

The Bear's Counter: Structural Strain

Pessimists caution that the domestic rot is not cyclical but structural. In July 2025, BYD recorded its first year-on-year production decline in 16 months and cut shifts at some plants to cope with overcapacity. Even as the world’s largest EV maker, the company struggles to grow in an increasingly crowded Chinese market.

The technical backdrop underscores the fragility. The stock still trades 3.83% below its 50-day moving average of €9.96 and 10.96% below the 200-day average of €10.76. The relative strength index of 56.6 indicates the oversold condition has been repaired, but the share remains 12.55% lower for the year and 35.27% off the 52-week high of €14.80 set in July 2025. A break above €10.00 would brighten the chart, but the 200-day line at €10.76 represents a tougher ceiling.

What to Watch Next

The coming months will test the bull case. The half-year report must show whether exclusive features can indeed lift average selling prices and whether export margins are beginning to offset domestic losses. Monthly sales figures will provide the first real-time clues. If domestic volumes continue to shrink by double digits and the price war rages on, even record export growth may not prevent a fifth consecutive quarter of declining profit. If, however, overseas deliveries keep accelerating and margins there hold up, the current rally could mark the start of a sustainable recovery — not just a short-lived relief bounce.