BYD Nears Global EV Sales Crown Amid Domestic Headwinds

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The race for electric vehicle supremacy is entering a decisive phase. Chinese automaker BYD is positioned to overtake Tesla in global EV sales for 2025, having already delivered more units through November than its American rival is projected to sell in the entire year. This push for the top spot comes as BYD navigates intensifying competition at home while accelerating its international footprint.

BYD's sales data through November 2025 shows a commanding lead. The company has sold 2.07 million pure electric vehicles. In comparison, Tesla delivered 1.22 million units through the end of September. Consensus estimates from FactSet project Tesla's fourth-quarter deliveries at approximately 449,000 vehicles. This would bring its annual total to roughly 1.65 million, marking a 7.7% decline year-over-year and placing it significantly below BYD's November tally.

Some analysts paint an even weaker picture for Tesla. Deutsche Bank researchers forecast only 405,000 deliveries for the fourth quarter. They anticipate a sales drop of about one-third in North America and Europe, with a decline of roughly 10% expected in the Chinese market.

Key BYD Metrics at a Glance

• Pure EV sales through November 2025: 2.07 million units.
• To hit its revised annual target of 4.6 million vehicles, BYD requires roughly 418,000 sales in December.
• November deliveries totaled 480,186 vehicles, representing a 5.3% decrease compared to the same month last year.
• Export volume for November reached 131,935 vehicles.

Mounting Pressure in the Domestic Arena

Despite its impending global leadership, BYD faces growing challenges in its home market. November marked the third consecutive month of declining sales. This trend is particularly concerning as the year-end period is traditionally a strong sales season, further amplified by the impending expiration of China's New Energy Vehicle purchase tax exemption on December 31.

Competitive intensity is rising sharply. Rivals like Geely have refreshed their model lineups, and Xiaomi's YU7 model is capturing significant market attention. BYD is consequently losing market share in both volume and premium segments.

Battery Recall Adds Complexity

A recent recall of plug-in hybrid models introduces additional strain. Chinese market regulators mandated a comprehensive software update for 88,981 Qin Plus DM-i vehicles manufactured between January 2021 and September 2023. The action addresses battery pack defects that can limit power output or prevent operation in pure electric mode.

The Qin Plus DM-i accounted for approximately 20% of BYD's total sales in October, making its performance highly sensitive for the company's overall results.

International Expansion Gains Momentum

In response to shrinking profitability domestically, BYD is aggressively pursuing overseas growth. According to Fitch Ratings director Jing Yang, the company is a frontrunner in establishing EV production capacity and supply chains outside of China.

This global push, however, encounters a challenging regulatory landscape:
* The United States maintains 100% tariffs on Chinese EV imports.
* The European Union has implemented additional import duties.
* To circumvent European trade barriers, BYD is constructing production capacity in Hungary.

Evidence of the strategy's effectiveness can be seen in markets like South Korea, where the BYD Atto 3 has dethroned Tesla's Model Y as the best-selling imported electric car. This demonstrates BYD's ability to penetrate established markets despite significant trade obstacles.

Profitability Emerges as a Concern

The company's earnings trajectory is drawing investor scrutiny. Two consecutive quarters of declining profits have raised questions about the sustainability of its growth model. BYD is caught between aggressive discounting that has driven volume and efforts by Chinese authorities to curb the industry's price war.

While exports represent a dynamic and bright spot, they cannot fully offset weakening domestic demand. Simultaneously, rising trade barriers in Europe and North America limit the company's ability to redirect excess capacity from the saturated Chinese market to other regions.