Boeing Stock: Order Victory Masks Production Challenges

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While Boeing has decisively won the 2025 order race against its European rival Airbus, persistent manufacturing and delivery hurdles continue to cloud its operational outlook. The stark contrast between strong demand and constrained output is defining the current investment thesis for the aerospace giant, even as analysts point to substantial future cash flow potential.

Recent November 2025 data underscores a significant gap. Boeing recorded 164 gross orders for the month, substantially outpacing Airbus, which logged just 75. This trend holds for the broader year-to-date period from January through November, with Boeing securing 908 net orders compared to 700 for Airbus. Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury has publicly acknowledged that Boeing is likely to clinch the "order contest" for the full year.

However, the delivery figures tell a different story. In November, Airbus handed over 72 aircraft to customers, while Boeing managed only 44 deliveries. This persistent shortfall highlights ongoing supply chain and production stability issues that the company must urgently resolve to capitalize on its substantial order backlog, which is being fueled by programs like the 777X.

Analyst Confidence Rooted in Cash Flow Projections

Despite these operational headwinds and a share price decline of nearly 2% over the past week to around 170 euros, some market experts see a buying opportunity. Analysts at TD Cowen have named Boeing a "Best Idea" for 2026, reaffirming a price target of 240 US dollars.

This optimism is largely predicated on forecasts for a dramatic expansion in Free Cash Flow (FCF). Projections indicate Boeing's FCF could surge from 2.8 billion dollars in 2026 to 11.7 billion dollars by 2028. Achieving this growth is contingent upon successfully ramping up production rates for the 737 and 787 models, as well as securing timely certifications for the 777X and new 737 variants.

Strategic Moves and Government Contracts Provide Support

The investment case receives additional support from recent government business. The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) placed an order for six Boeing 737 aircraft, valued at approximately 140 million dollars. Although the volume is modest relative to the company's total backlog, the direct purchase—as opposed to a charter arrangement—signals long-term government confidence in the 737 platform.

Concurrently, a pivotal strategic review is underway. The planned reintegration of supplier Spirit AeroSystems is under scrutiny by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), which is accepting public comments until January 9, 2026. Market observers view this potential consolidation as a critical step for Boeing to bring quality control for fuselage production fully in-house and stabilize its supply chain.

The central challenge for Boeing's medium-term stock performance will be bridging the divide between its impressive order intake and its sluggish delivery pace in 2026. Investor attention is now fixed on the FTC's January deadline and the concrete production figures expected in the first quarter.