Boeing’s Ambitious Production and Defense Strategy Faces Scrutiny

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Boeing is pursuing a dramatic ramp-up in output for its 737 MAX program while simultaneously securing multi-billion dollar defense contracts. However, the feasibility of these aggressive manufacturing targets is under examination, given the company's historical supply chain challenges.

Alongside its commercial aviation efforts, Boeing's defense segment has landed significant agreements. The U.S. Navy awarded a $930.77 million contract for service life extension work on its F/A-18 Super Hornet fleet, with work scheduled through November 2028.

In a separate transaction, the U.S. Air Force is purchasing two Boeing 747-8i aircraft from Lufthansa for $400 million. These jets are intended to support the delayed VC-25B program—the new Air Force One—and act as training platforms. The first delivery is planned for early 2026.

Technological advancements are also progressing. Boeing subsidiary Wisk Aero successfully completed the maiden flight of its sixth-generation autonomous air taxi on December 16.

A Steep Climb for 737 MAX Production

Internal company reviews are reportedly assessing a production rate of 63 737 MAX jets per month by 2028, according to industry reports from December 17. This represents a substantial increase from the current stable output of approximately 38 aircraft monthly. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) currently caps production at a maximum of 42 planes.

This ambitious plan is driven by a substantial order backlog, which stood at 4,774 MAX aircraft as of the end of November. At a rate of 63 units per month, this backlog equates to roughly 6.3 years of work. Execution is critically dependent on a smooth supply chain, an area where Boeing has faced difficulties previously.

Regulatory progress is being made on the larger MAX variant. On December 17, the FAA initiated its review of new crew alerting systems and angle-of-attack sensors for the 737-10, the largest model in the MAX family.

Investor Sentiment Presents a Mixed Picture

Institutional investor activity shows divergent trends. Oak Thistle LLC reduced its position by 37.8% in the third quarter of 2025, while Corient Private Wealth LLC decreased its holdings by 13.6% in the second quarter.

Insider transactions also varied. Vice President Uma Amuluru sold 1,366 shares at approximately $197.66 each, whereas Senior Vice President Dana Deasy acquired 554 shares at $178.88 per share.

The average analyst price target sits at $232.96, notably above the recent trading level around $206. The company's ability to meet its ambitious production goals is likely to be a decisive factor for its future stock performance.