BMW Tests E-Fuels as Stock Hits New Low, Analyst Optimism Clashes with 40% Year-to-Date Slide

BMW tests renewable gasoline with Toyota, Bosch, Repsol but shares tumble 38% YTD on China sales plunge; analysts see 53% upside ahead of Q2 earnings.

BMW has launched a pilot program with Toyota, Bosch and Repsol to test gasoline derived entirely from renewable sources, a move aimed at decarbonising the existing vehicle fleet without requiring engine modifications or new fuelling infrastructure. The announcement came on a day when the Munich-based automaker’s shares plumbed a fresh 52-week low of €56.72 before recovering to close at €58.78 — still down 38.72% since the start of the year and nearly 40% below the December high of €97.90.

Despite the rout, two major sell-side institutions have reaffirmed their bullish stances just ahead of BMW’s second-quarter earnings report scheduled for July 30. Deutsche Bank Research maintained a “Buy” rating with a €90 price target, implying roughly 53% upside from the current level. JPMorgan, which reiterated “Overweight” on July 10, set its target at €82. Both analysts specifically cited the upcoming quarterly release as a catalyst for reassessing the stock’s valuation.

The chasm between analyst conviction and market pricing is unusually wide. The stock currently trades at less than two-thirds of the average target price from the two banks, a gap that highlights the depth of investor scepticism — or, alternatively, the potential for a mean-reversion rally if fundamentals stabilise.

That scepticism stems largely from BMW’s deteriorating performance in China, its single most important market. First-half 2026 deliveries fell 20.4% year-on-year in the region, with the decline accelerating to 30.2% in the second quarter alone. Global shipments totalled roughly 1.15 million vehicles, down 4.2% from the prior-year period. The shortfall in China more than offset gains elsewhere: European deliveries rose 5.4% and U.S. sales advanced 3.9% in the first half, while fully electric vehicle volume in Europe jumped 38% in the second quarter.

BMW already lowered its full-year outlook in June 2026, guiding for a slight decline in deliveries and an EBIT margin of just 1% to 3% in its automotive segment — a far cry from earlier targets. The company also announced management changes at BMW North America on July 13, a sign that it is adapting its leadership structure to shifting market conditions.

Technical indicators painted a mixed picture during Wednesday’s session. Intraday the relative strength index touched 31.1, deep in oversold territory, but recovered to 36.4 by the close — still near the threshold that often precedes a stabilisation attempt. The 50-day moving average at €67.89 and the 200-day moving average at €81.71 remain well above the current price, underlining the stock’s entrenched downtrend. A 30-day annualised volatility of 32.32% suggests further sharp swings are likely.

The e-fuel pilot, meanwhile, does little to address near-term headwinds. It underscores BMW’s strategy of pursuing a dual path — ramping up battery-electric vehicles while keeping combustion-engine cars relevant for the long haul. Sales chief Jochen Goller noted that the “Neue Klasse” platform is gaining traction, with the iX3 expected to generate the next 100,000 orders. Yet for now, the market’s focus remains fixed on China’s pricing war, margin pressure, and whether the July 30 earnings will justify the analysts’ optimistic targets or deepen the stock’s slide.