BMW Shares Test Year Lows as China’s 30% Q2 Slide Overrides Western Sales Momentum

BMW's Q2 2026 global deliveries fell 4.9% as China sales plunged 30%, contrasting with strong US and European growth. Stock remains near 52-week low despite oversold RSI.

The German automaker is navigating one of its starkest regional divergences in recent memory. While deliveries in the United States and Europe posted healthy gains in the second quarter, a deepening slump in China — BMW’s largest single market — dragged global volumes lower and kept the stock pinned just above its 52-week trough.

BMW’s China deliveries fell to 117,815 vehicles in the three months through June, a 30% drop year-on-year. The decline follows a broader pattern across the German premium segment: both Mercedes-Benz and Audi reported similar weakness in the region, reflecting persistent softness in the world’s biggest auto market.

Worldwide, the group delivered 590,962 vehicles during the quarter, down 4.9% versus the prior year. For the first half of 2026, total shipments reached 1,156,742 units, a contraction of 4.2%. The core BMW brand bore the brunt, with sales off 6.2% to 1,004,681 vehicles. The MINI brand did little to offset the trend.

The pain in China stands in sharp contrast to the situation in the West. BMW brand sales in Europe climbed 5.4% to 260,173 vehicles in the second quarter, while U.S. deliveries surged 13% to 102,713 — a level that underscores the strength of the X-baureihe SUV lineup, which now accounts for more than half of American sales. Only MINI showed a blemish in the country, slipping 2.1% to 7,456 units.

Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) also offered a ray of light. Global BEV sales rose 5.2% to 116,807 units, with Europe the standout market: deliveries jumped 38% to 81,445 vehicles. That regional EV momentum, however, has yet to translate into meaningful support for the share price.

Stock stuck in the slow lane

BMW shares closed Friday at €58.28, virtually unchanged on the day. That leaves the stock just 2.14% above its 52-week low of €57.06, which was touched in late June. Since the start of the year, the equity has lost 39.24%, and it remains a deep 40% below the December 2025 all-time high of €97.90.

The downturn has been especially cruel over the past month: the stock shed almost 14% in the last 30 trading sessions, placing it nearly 29% under the 200-day moving average of €82.03. The 50-day average of €69.12 also sits well above the current price. Annualized volatility has climbed to 31.44%, signaling that sharp swings may persist.

On the chart, the relative-strength index reads 31.1, a level that technically points to an oversold condition. That has drawn the attention of some technicians, who now watch the year low as a key support level. The distance from the 200-day line is historically stretched, suggesting either a pending bounce or further erosion if fundamentals deteriorate.

Analysts see value despite the gloom

Several sell-side voices have remained constructive on the name. LBBW recently raised its price target to €85.00, citing BMW’s powerful U.S. market position. The DZ Bank lowered its fair-value estimate to €75.00 but kept a buy recommendation, arguing that the stock’s price-to-earnings ratio of around seven is too low to ignore.

These bullish calls come against a backdrop of cost-cutting and structural change. The group completed the conversion of roughly 55 million preference shares into ordinary shares — a move designed to improve liquidity and attract international fund flows. So far, the measure has done little to arrest the price slide, but analysts expect the improved capital structure to pay dividends over time.

Key dates on the horizon

Investors will get their next dose of detail on July 10, 2026, when BMW hosts a pre-close call ahead of its half-year results. The market is pressing for clarity on pricing strategy in China — a market where the company has been forced to offer steep discounts — as well as the progress of an ongoing cost-saving programme.

The full half-year report is due on July 30. By then, management is expected to lay out concrete measures to address the China drag, including how the “Neue Klasse” generation of models can reignite demand. Sales chief Jochen Goller has set a target of 100,000 orders for the upcoming iX3, the first Neue Klasse model slated for launch in 2026. Whether that volume can offset the slide in the group’s most important single market remains an open question.

Until those numbers land, the stock appears caught between two opposing forces: solid Western sales and a grinding China retreat that keeps it glued to the floor.