BMW’s New CEO Faces a 27% Share Rout as Tariff and China Headwinds Deepen

BMW shares hit 52-week low as China EV competition squeezes margins, tariffs loom, and new CEO Nedeljkovi? navigates headwinds. JPMorgan holds €100 target.

Milan Nedeljkovi? has barely had time to settle into the top job at BMW, and already the stock is plumbing depths not seen in a year. The automaker’s shares touched a fresh 52-week low of €68.96 on Monday, extending a year-to-date slide of nearly 27%. The relentless sell-off reflects a convergence of pressures: a cooling Chinese market, growing trade barriers, and a margin that is hovering at the lower end of management’s own guidance.

China’s premium EV assault erodes BMW’s margins

The headache from Beijing is no longer just about slowing demand. Local electric vehicle makers are aggressively targeting the premium segment, forcing BMW into a discounting battle that is squeezing profitability. In the first quarter of 2026, BMW’s sales in China shrank by roughly 10%. The operating margin in the automotive division at the end of the first three months stood at 5.0%, exactly the bottom of the company’s full-year target range of 4% to 6%. Analysts had been expecting a margin of 5.5% for the current quarter, but JPMorgan’s Jose Asumendi recently trimmed his forecast to 5%, aligning with the reality of weaker pricing power.

JPMorgan holds firm on a €100 target – for now

Despite the gloom, Asumendi maintains an “Overweight” rating and a €100 price target on BMW shares. His conviction rests partly on the group’s cost discipline after a record capital spending year in 2024, and on a nascent AI strategy that he believes will support longer-term efficiency. Short-term headwinds, however, are proving stubborn. The stock changed hands at €70.10 on Monday, more than 17% below its 200-day moving average of around €84.69. The 14-day Relative Strength Index slipped to 28.5, technically oversold territory, yet no bounce has materialised.

Tariffs and origin rules complicate the new CEO’s playbook

Nedeljkovi?, who took over from Oliver Zipse in May, now faces a regulatory minefield. Potential EU tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles – including the electric Mini built in China – could directly hit BMW’s import costs. Further out, tougher rules of origin for EU-UK trade from 2027 threaten the viability of Mini production at the Oxford plant unless regional components account for at least 45% of the car’s value. The new CEO plans to offset some of the pressure with the launch of an all-wheel-drive M2 in the second half of 2026, a niche product that could bolster the high-margin M division but is unlikely to compensate for the broader downturn in mass-market volumes.

Recognition for a former boss, but investors want results

Ironically, the company’s communication strategy under former CEO Zipse recently earned BMW the “Deutscher Image Award 2026” from the F.A.Z. Institut, a ceremony scheduled for September in Frankfurt. The accolade underscores the stability at the top during Zipse’s tenure, but it does little to allay investor concerns about the current direction. All eyes are now on June sales figures, which will shape the half-year results due in the third quarter. If those numbers disappoint, the consensus forecasts may be slashed further, and the stock could test even lower levels. The previous 52-week high of €97.90, set in December 2025, now feels like a distant memory.