BMW's iX3 Order Momentum Fails to Lift Shares as China's 20% Sales Drop Weighs

BMW's new iX3 electric SUV sees strong demand with nearly 100,000 orders, but a sharp downturn in China overshadows growth in Europe and the US, keeping the stock pinned near its 52-week low.

BMW's new iX3 electric SUV is approaching 100,000 orders barely months after launch, yet the German automaker's stock remains pinned near its 52-week low as a sharp downturn in China overshadows solid growth in Europe and the United States.

The Munich-based group delivered roughly 1.15 million vehicles worldwide in the first half of 2026, a 4.2% decline from a year earlier. The headline contraction masks starkly diverging performances across regions. Sales in Europe climbed 5.4% to 496,651 units, while US deliveries rose 3.9% to 200,661. China, by contrast, saw demand collapse by 20.4% to just 261,773 vehicles, a decline that wiped out the gains from the West.

Among the group's brands, MINI proved a standout, posting an 11.7% increase to 149,538 cars — its strongest half-year ever. The core BMW brand slipped 6.2% to just over one million units, and BMW Motorrad delivered 2.9% fewer motorcycles at 102,847.

The iX3, the first model in BMW's "Neue Klasse" generation, has been a bright spot. Early reviews have praised its performance, infotainment and driver-assistance systems. According to the company, more than half of all BMW X3 orders in Europe are now for the all-electric version. JPMorgan, which rates the stock "overweight" with a €82 price target, highlighted the iX3's order book momentum as a sign of strong EV demand in Europe.

Yet the broader market remains unconvinced. The stock closed Friday at €58.16, down 0.48% on the day and 39.37% lower since the start of 2026. It now sits just 1.93% above its 52-week trough of €57.06, reached on June 30. On a weekly basis, the shares have shed 4.12%, and the monthly decline stands at 14.02%. The 52-week high of €97.90 from December 2025 is now 40.59% away.

Technical indicators suggest the stock is oversold. The 14-day relative strength index stands at 30.8, below the 30 threshold often considered a buy signal. The price remains well below both its 50-day moving average of €69.12 and its 200-day moving average of €82.03, reflecting persistent downward pressure.

BMW's financial performance is also under strain. The company cut its full-year guidance in June, now forecasting an operating margin of 1% to 3% for its automotive division, compared with an earlier target of 4% to 6%. The revision was driven by the China downturn and disruptions from the Middle East conflict. Despite the headwinds, BMW continues to invest: on June 30, it completed a $1.7 billion expansion at its Spartanburg, South Carolina plant, where it also unveiled the new X5.

Investors will look for clarity on July 30, when BMW publishes its half-year report. The update will reveal whether the iX3's commercial success and Western market momentum can translate into earnings that justify analyst optimism—or whether China's deepening crisis will continue to cap the stock.