BMW’s iX3 Nears 100,000 Orders as China Slide Overshadows Strong EV Growth in Europe and US

BMW iX3 pre-orders approach 100,000, but China sales collapse and US tariffs force profit warning. Shares languish near 52-week low despite strong European EV growth.

BMW’s all-new iX3 electric SUV is closing in on a landmark 100,000 pre-orders, providing a rare bright spot as the automaker’s shares languish near a 52-week low struck at the end of June. Sales of fully electric BMW and Mini vehicles hit 116,807 units in the second quarter, a 5.2% year-on-year increase, with Europe alone delivering an 38% jump to 81,445 EVs. Jochen Goller, BMW’s sales chief, attributed the rebound to “strong momentum” from the Neue Klasse architecture, noting that the successor i3 model has also seen robust early demand since orders opened ahead of schedule.

Yet the overall picture remains deeply divided. BMW delivered approximately 1.15 million vehicles in the first half of 2026, a decline of 4.2%, with nearly the entire shortfall coming from a single market. China deliveries tumbled 20.4% over the six-month period, and the second quarter alone saw a steeper collapse of between 30% and 41% versus the same period last year. The broader Chinese passenger-car market contracted by roughly 24% in the first half to about 8.3 million units, and consultancy AlixPartners forecasts a full-year drop of 10%. Chinese manufacturers are also gaining ground in BMW’s home market: their share of new-car registrations in Germany rose from 2.3% in 2025 to 3.7% in the first six months of 2026.

Western markets provided a counterbalance. European deliveries advanced 5.4% to 496,651 vehicles in the half, while US sales climbed 3.9% to 200,661 units, outpacing the overall market. BMW’s German home market posted a 10.2% gain to 149,135 units, based on preliminary registration data. Mini continued its growth streak, recording its sixth consecutive quarterly rise with 149,538 deliveries, up 11.7%. The core BMW brand, however, slipped 6.2% to roughly one million vehicles, and Rolls-Royce fell 9.8% to 2,523 units.

The persistent weakness in China, compounded by US tariffs under President Donald Trump, prompted BMW to slash its full-year profit forecast in June. The company now expects pre-tax earnings to fall by more than 15%, while guiding for an automotive segment operating margin of just 1% to 3%, down from a prior range of 4% to 6%. With the full half-year report due on July 30, investors are watching closely for any further deterioration.

The market’s verdict has been unambiguous. BMW shares closed Friday at €58.28, a loss of 0.17% on the day but a 13.84% decline over the past 30 days. The stock has shed 39.24% since the start of the year and 31.50% over 12 months. At its current level, the share price is just 2.14% above the 52-week low of €57.06 set on June 30, and remains 40.47% below the December high of €97.90. The Relative Strength Index stands at 31.1, signaling oversold conditions, while 30-day annualized volatility of 31.44% reflects ongoing market nervousness. The company’s market capitalization has shrunk to approximately €35.4 billion.

Looking ahead, BMW is hedging against regulatory and demand uncertainties with an unusually broad powertrain strategy for the next-generation X5, due in 2027. The model will be offered in five variants: a 394-horsepower gasoline engine, a 483-hp plug-in hybrid, a diesel, a hydrogen version, and a fully electric iX5 producing 570 hp. The latter will feature a 144-kWh battery pack capable of up to 700 kilometers of range and a 10-to-80% charge in 22 minutes. Production of the X5 family begins in August 2026 at BMW’s Spartanburg plant in the US, with pricing starting at $71,250. The multi-powertrain approach aims to serve divergent customer preferences across global markets, even as the Neue Klasse electric lineup gains traction at home.