BMW's Deepening China Headwinds Overshadow Deutsche Bank's Bullish Bet

Deutsche Bank reiterates buy on BMW with €90 target, but stock hits 52-week low amid 30% China sales drop, EV market share lag, and technical oversold signals.

Deutsche Bank Research sees a 57% upside in BMW shares from current levels, but the market is having none of it. Analyst Tim Rokossa reaffirmed his buy rating and €90 price target on July 14 – the same day the stock scraped a fresh 52-week low of €57.00. By Tuesday’s close, the Munich-based automaker’s equity had recovered only marginally to €57.36, leaving a chasm between analyst conviction and real-world sentiment that the July 30 second-quarter results will have to bridge.

The technical picture offers little comfort. BMW has shed 16.29% over the past month and 3.04% in the last week alone, bringing its year-to-date loss to 40.20% and the 12-month decline to 31.89%. The stock now sits 41.41% below its 52-week peak of €97.90 from December 9, 2025. Its 14-day relative strength index of 29.0 signals oversold territory, while the 50-day moving average of €68.34 and the 200-day average of €81.81 are both well out of reach – the stock trades 16.07% and nearly 30% below those marks, respectively. With 30-day annualized volatility at 31.35% and a market capitalization of €35.30 billion, the nervousness around the name is palpable.

The fundamental pressure is concentrated in China, where BMW’s troubles run deeper than the headline 30% sales plunge in the second quarter suggests. Electric vehicles now account for 46% of China’s auto market, yet only 5% of BMW’s local sales are fully electric – a disconnect that one DWS portfolio manager, Hendrik Schmidt, calls evidence that management “significantly underestimated the dynamics” in the world’s largest car market. DWS ranks among BMW’s top ten shareholders. Average transaction prices have also slipped: at 341,000 yuan (roughly $50,200), BMW now sits below Chinese premium rivals such as Nio, Aito and Denza, and only Audi’s €287,000 yuan average is lower among the German trio. The company rejects the criticism, pointing to deep China experience in senior management and a deliberate strategy of thorough testing over speed; Chinese rivals often bring new EVs to market in 18 months, roughly half the time traditional automakers need.

Compounding the operational drag, BMW announced a recall of 29,119 vehicles on July 14, though details on the affected models and the nature of the defect were not disclosed. The recall lands in a week already thick with bad news and threatens to amplify near-term selling pressure. On the product front, however, the company offered a glimmer of long-term direction: the electric M3 will keep the M3 name (not iM3), with the production version derived from the M Concept Neue Klasse due in 2027. A new combustion-engine M3 – codenamed G84 – follows in 2028, and an electric M Performance i3 is also planned for 2027. The dual-powertrain strategy underscores BMW’s reluctance to abandon the internal combustion engine even as it accelerates its EV rollout. The first Neue Klasse model for China, a stretched iX3, was shown at the Beijing Auto Show in April and is slated for customer deliveries from the Shenyang plant in summer 2026.

That timeline leaves BMW exposed for at least another twelve months – a window in which Chinese rivals will continue to gain share and pricing power. Yet Deutsche Bank’s Rokossa evidently views the current slump as cyclical rather than structural, betting that the group’s brand strength and Neue Klasse product cycle will eventually close the gap. With Mercedes’ China sales off 28% in the first half and Audi’s down 19%, the pain is industry-wide, but BMW’s relative underperformance in EVs and its lagging market perception have made it the lightning rod for investor frustration. The July 30 earnings release will provide the first hard numbers on whether the second quarter represents a floor – or just another step down.