BMW’s €2.1 Billion Tariff Tab Darkens CEO Handover as Shares Languish Near 52-Week Low

BMW shares fall over 22% in 2025 as trade war tariffs cost €2.1B. New CEO, share simplification, and €4.40 dividend fail to lift sentiment. EBIT margin forecast below target.

Investors have given a cool reception to a raft of corporate surgery at BMW. The luxury carmaker has installed a new chief executive, streamlined its share structure and confirmed a hefty dividend — yet the stock continues to slide, down more than 22% since the start of the year.

On Friday, shares closed at €74.78, leaving them just 4% above the 52-week trough of €71.50. The gap to the 200-day moving average, currently near €86, has widened to almost 14%, while the 50-day line sits almost 7% higher. A break below the 52-week low would risk triggering further technical selling.

Trade war bills mount

A key drag is the trade environment. Since the beginning of 2025, BMW has accumulated €2.1 billion in tariff charges, chiefly from US import duties that at one point hit 27.5%. Chief financial officer Walter Mertl expects some relief from the second half of 2026, when EU counter-tariffs on American vehicles are due to lapse, but the damage is already embedded in the numbers.

For 2026, BMW forecasts an EBIT margin of 4% to 6% for its automotive segment — well shy of the 8% to 10% target range. Tariffs alone account for roughly 1.25 percentage points of that shortfall, even after mitigating measures.

New leadership, same old pressures

Milan Nedeljkovi? took over as CEO from Oliver Zipse, who led the company for almost seven years. The handover was approved at the annual general meeting. Nedeljkovi?, previously head of production, was instrumental in developing the Neue Klasse platform. Michael Nikolaides, formerly in charge of production network and logistics, steps up as strategy chief.

The market, however, has yet to be convinced. The Q1 results offered a mixed picture. Automotive EBIT margin came in at 5.0%, a shade above the 4.7% analysts expected, but pre-tax profit of roughly €2.3 billion was almost 25% lower than a year earlier. The bright spot was free cash flow in the car division, which rose to €777 million, well ahead of the prior-year figure.

Structural overhaul passed with ease

Shareholders approved a radical simplification of the company’s capital structure. All non-voting preference shares will be converted into ordinary voting stock, eliminating the former dividend preference. Mertl argued the move should strengthen BMW’s weighting in key indices, where a unified share class often attracts broader inclusion.

The resolution passed with more than 99% support from both classes of shareholders.

Dividend in the mail, but don’t bet on a bounce

The €4.40 per share dividend for 2025 was already deducted from the stock price on 14 May. The cash hits accounts on Tuesday. While the payment provides liquidity, it does little to address the structural headwinds.

China remains a crucial wildcard. Management reiterated its localisation strategy — developing products tailored to Chinese tastes rather than exporting. The company aims to deliver its two millionth all-electric vehicle in 2026, driven by the Neue Klasse models iX3 and i3. Yet for now, the stock is unmoved.

A capital markets day is scheduled for late September, where Nedeljkovi? is expected to lay out concrete strategic priorities. Until then, any recovery will need a clear signal that margins are heading back towards the target corridor.