BMW Preps Job Cuts and i3 Rollout as Margin Warning Drives Stock to Year Low

BMW cuts margin forecast to 1-3%, plans up to 7,500 job cuts amid Moody's downgrade and China weakness; new i3 EV launches with 912 km range.

The pain at BMW is deepening on multiple fronts. Just days after halving its profit margin forecast, the carmaker is now bracing for workforce reductions, while simultaneously rushing out its new electric i3 as a potential lifeline. The combination has left shares trading near their lowest level in 52 weeks, with analysts and rating agencies turning increasingly bearish.

Up to 7,500 Jobs at Risk as New CEO Tightens the Screws

Milan Nedeljkovic, who took the helm at BMW earlier this year, has warned employees that significant efficiency measures are coming. The company is discussing with the works council a potential headcount reduction of up to five percent of its global workforce of roughly 150,000 — equivalent to as many as 7,500 positions. The works council confirmed on Friday that talks are already underway.

The trigger for the job cuts is the dramatic downward revision to the automotive segment’s EBIT margin outlook, slashed from 4–6 percent to just 1–3 percent. At the same time, free cash flow guidance for the car division was cut from €4.5 billion to more than €2.5 billion. The new internal cost programme, dubbed “Next Level Performance,” is meant to restore profitability, but the clock is ticking.

Moody’s and UBS Pull the Trigger

Rating agency Moody’s responded swiftly, revising BMW’s credit outlook from “stable” to “negative” on June 19 while keeping the long-term “A2” rating intact for now. The agency cited three headwinds: uncertainty over a rapid margin recovery, persistent weakness in China’s new-car market, and geopolitical strains from the Middle East conflict.

Analysts are also recalibrating. UBS’s Patrick Hummel slashed his price target from €88 to €70 and cut his earnings-per-share estimates by as much as 44 percent through 2028. He kept a “Neutral” rating, arguing that a meaningful recovery in China is unlikely over the next two years. The stock has shed roughly 37 percent since the start of the year, and on Thursday it touched a 52-week low of €58.80.

Technical Oversold, but a Glimmer of Light

The shares have clawed back slightly to €60.36, up 0.60 percent on the day, as reports surfaced that the European Union is preparing tariffs on Chinese plug-in hybrids. Such a move could ease competitive pressure on German automakers. The relative strength index sits at 19.4 — deep in oversold territory — which suggests a technical bounce is possible absent more bad news.

BMW is trying to generate its own positive momentum. The new BMW i3 “First Edition” is now available for order, with a base price of €65,900 and the First Edition variant costing €75,340. The company claims a WLTP range of up to 912 kilometres for the standard version. Production is set to begin in August at the core Munich plant. Supervisory board chairman Nicolas Peter said the “Neue Klasse” platform is on track and that order books indicate strong demand.

The Chinese Elephant in the Room

Auto expert Ferdinand Dudenhöffer warns that BMW must streamline its model portfolio and cost structure to counter rising pressure from Chinese EV makers. BYD plans to launch its “Great Tang” electric SUV in Europe from the end of 2026 at roughly €31,000 — a price point that threatens premium brands structurally. BMW’s internal restructuring, including the job cut negotiations, will largely determine whether the company can at least hit the upper end of its revised margin forecast.