BMW Faces Dual Drag: Index Removal Deepens Slide as China Collapse Undermines Western Sales Gains

BMW stock near 52-week low after index removal and China sales slump, but Western growth and EV ramp-up offer hope. Analysts consider it undervalued.

BMW’s stock is stuck near its 52-week low, squeezed between a brutal Chinese sales rout and an unexpected technical headwind: forced selling by passive funds after the automaker was removed from two major indices. While deliveries in the US and Europe are rising, the company’s ambitious electric-vehicle ramp-up is being overshadowed by a 30% plunge in Chinese demand and the mechanical pressure of an index expulsion.

The index removals stem from BMW’s decision to convert all preference shares into common stock on a one-for-one basis, approved by shareholders on May 13 and effective from July 3. The resulting 19% increase in the free float of common shares prompted the S&P Europe 350 and the FTSE All-World to drop the stock, a move announced on July 1. Index-tracking funds are now compelled to sell their BMW stakes, adding artificial downward pressure to a share price already reeling from fundamental troubles.

Operationally, the picture is starkly divided. Global deliveries fell 4.9% in the second quarter to 590,962 vehicles, dragged down by a 30.2% slump in China to just 117,817 units. BMW blamed intense price competition and a shifting market environment in Asia-Pacific. The first-half total of 1,156,700 vehicles was 4.2% below the prior-year level. Yet in the US, sales jumped 11.9%; Europe excluding Germany posted a 7.6% gain; and MINI deliveries rose 17.1% to 81,035 units.

At the same time, BMW is accelerating its electric vehicle push. Its engine plant in Steyr, Austria, has ramped up to two-shift production of sixth-generation eDrive motors for the Neue Klasse, outputting over 4,000 units per week. The factory — traditionally known for combustion engines — now supplies motors for the iX3 and i3 to the assembly plant in Debrecen, Hungary. BMW plans to build more than 100,000 e-motors this year, a massive leap from the 8,500 pre-series units in 2025. The iX5 Hydrogen is scheduled for series production in 2028.

The stock trades at about €58.50, hovering just above its 52-week low of €57.06 set on June 30. From its December peak of €97.90, the shares have lost roughly 40%, and the market capitalisation has shrunk to €35.6 billion. The 50-day moving average stands nearly 16% above the current price, while the 200-day average at €82.03 is almost 30% higher. The relative strength index at around 31 signals an oversold condition, but high annual volatility of 31% reflects persistent investor nervousness.

Analysts remain cautiously optimistic. LBBW lifted its price target slightly to €85, and DZ Bank, while trimming its fair value to €75, still sees the stock as undervalued at current levels. The company’s pre-close analyst call takes place today, and the full first-half report is due on July 30. Investors will be watching whether the momentum in Western markets can offset the deepening China crisis — and how long the index-related selling pressure will last. BMW’s mid-June profit warning, citing a clearly reduced operating margin in its automotive segment, underscores the gravity of the challenge.