Bloom Energy's Record Rally Meets Reality Check as AI Power Demand Fuels $2.6 Billion Bet

Bloom Energy shares slip 1.8% after record high, fueled by $2.6B Nebius deal for AI data center power. Revenue up 130%, but analyst targets lag.

The blistering run in Bloom Energy shares has hit a brief pause, even as the company locks in a landmark deal to supply power to one of the biggest names in artificial intelligence infrastructure. After closing at an all-time high of $307.88 on Thursday, the stock slipped 1.8% on Friday to $302.49 — a classic profit-taking pattern that does little to dent a twelve-month surge of more than 1,400%.

That astronomical gain has been driven by a fundamental shift in how the market views Bloom Energy. Once pigeonholed as a hydrogen fuel-cell manufacturer, the company is now being revalued as a critical supplier of on-site electricity for the power-hungry data centers that underpin the AI boom. The catalyst for this latest leg higher was a $2.6 billion capacity agreement with Nebius, a European AI infrastructure builder, which plans to deploy Bloom's solid-oxide fuel cells across its US data center footprint.

The first phase of that agreement calls for 328 megawatts of installed capacity to go live this year. By generating power directly at the facility, Bloom sidesteps the lengthy grid interconnection delays that have become a major bottleneck for the hyperscalers rushing to build out AI compute capacity. Management laid out that narrative clearly during the virtual shareholder meeting this week, underscoring a pivot that has swelled the company's product backlog to $6 billion — roughly 2.5 times the level a year ago — with a total order book of about $20 billion. Partnerships with Oracle and Brookfield Asset Management have also contributed to that build-up.

The numbers behind the rally provide some ballast. In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Bloom Energy generated $751.1 million in revenue, up 130.4% from $326.0 million a year earlier. Product revenue jumped even more sharply by 208.4% to $653.3 million. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.44, topping analyst estimates, and the company subsequently raised its full-year outlook. Bloom now expects revenue in a range of $3.4 billion to $3.8 billion — up from a prior forecast of $3.1 billion to $3.3 billion — and adjusted EPS between $1.85 and $2.25, with an adjusted gross margin of roughly 34%.

Institutional investors collectively own about 77% of outstanding shares, according to recent filings, signaling structural confidence in the growth story. Yet the analyst community remains divided, and the speed of the revaluation has opened a gap between price and conventional valuation metrics. The average analyst price target stands at $217.48 — well below the current trading level. Morgan Stanley holds an Overweight rating with a $310 target, while Citigroup is more cautious at $281. Other calls span the range: RBC Capital raised its target to $335 in late April, Barclays stood at $254 in mid-May, and neither of those is high enough to justify Friday's close.

Insider sales have also added a note of caution. Several executives sold shares in May, mostly to cover tax obligations tied to equity compensation, but the timing — at or near all-time highs — inevitably draws scrutiny. The market capitalization has swelled to roughly $87.15 billion, a level that leaves little room for execution missteps.

The Nebius deal now becomes the next concrete test. If Bloom can deliver the initial 328 MW on schedule, the AI-power narrative gains further credibility. Any delays, by contrast, would strike at the very attribute — speed of deployment — that has driven the rerating. The next quarterly report will offer the first real check on whether the stock's meteoric ascent has outpaced the operational reality.