Bloom Energy’s Record Rally Is Powered by a $2.6 Billion AI Bet — and Shadowed by Insider Sales

Bloom Energy stock surged 1,259% since May 2025 after a $2.6B deal with AI-cloud provider Nebius, but profit-taking and a lofty 80x book value leave analysts divided.

The fuel-cell maker’s stock hit an all?time high of $307.88 on Thursday, only to retreat 1.8% to $302.49 the next day. The pattern is familiar after a historic peak: profit?taking, valuation doubts, a brief pause. Yet this pullback barely scratches a stunning trajectory — Bloom Energy has surged 1,259% since May 2025 and 201% year?to?date.

What lit the fuse was a blockbuster partnership announced on 20 May. Bloom Energy signed a long?term deal with European AI?cloud provider Nebius to supply fuel?cell technology that bypasses grid bottlenecks at data centres. The contract calls for up to $2.6 billion in service fees over ten years, with an initial 328?megawatt installation expected to begin operations later this year.

That agreement builds on an already formidable pipeline. Bloom has an expanded pact with Oracle to deploy up to 2.8 gigawatts of fuel?cell capacity for AI and cloud infrastructure — 1.2 GW of that already under firm contract for US projects. The company’s total order book stands at $20 billion, including $6 billion in product orders. A separate $5 billion infrastructure partnership with Brookfield adds further visibility.

The financial results give the story substance. In the first quarter of its 2026 fiscal year, Bloom posted revenue of $751 million, a 130% jump from the prior year. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.44, well ahead of analyst estimates. Management raised its full?year guidance, now forecasting revenue between $3.4 billion and $3.8 billion and EPS of $1.85 to $2.25.

Despite the operational momentum, the stock trades at roughly 80 times book value — a multiple that has analysts divided. The average price target among analysts is $217.48, far below current levels. RBC Capital raised its target to $335 in late April, while Barclays set a $254 target in mid?May. Both are still under the stock’s recent trading range. Daiwa has the most bullish call, initiating coverage with an “Outperform” rating.

Insider activity adds another layer of tension. In May, company executives sold shares in a coordinated fashion between $288 and $293. While these sales are largely tax?related, the timing — right at the all?time high — has drawn attention from investors already nervous about valuation.

Institutional ownership, however, remains remarkably high at roughly 77% of outstanding shares, signalling structural confidence in Bloom’s AI?driven growth thesis. The company’s fuel?cell technology offers a decentralized power solution tailor?made for hyperscalers straining grid capacity.

The next big test will come with the following quarter’s earnings. If Bloom can deliver on its upgraded guidance and show that its megadeals are translating into tangible deliveries, the gap between analyst targets and the market price may narrow — or the stock may finally justify its lofty valuation. Until then, the tension between record highs and insider profit?taking will keep this story finely balanced.