Bloom Energy’s Record Pipeline Can’t Mask the Pain From Oracle and AEP Delays

Bloom Energy shares fall 43% from highs as key Oracle and AEP projects face setbacks, valuation metrics stretch to extreme levels, and insider selling adds pressure.

Bloom Energy’s stock has suffered a brutal reversal in recent weeks, wiping out a large chunk of the gains built up during a blistering first half. The fuel-cell maker closed Monday at €172.80, down 5.98% on the day, bringing its one-month slide to 42.97%. That puts the shares 43.99% below the 52-week high of €308.50 set on June 25, even as the stock remains up 130.25% year-to-date. The Relative Strength Index has fallen to 34.9, a level that typically signals oversold conditions, yet the selling pressure shows no sign of abating.

At the heart of the rout are two high-profile projects that have hit serious snags. In New Mexico, regulators have again denied a pipeline permit needed for Oracle’s “Project Jupiter” — a massive undertaking that would require up to 2.45 gigawatts of Bloom’s fuel cells. Oracle is racing against an internal deadline of August 15, after which the timeline becomes increasingly uncertain. Separately, a project with American Electric Power in Wyoming has been pushed back by two years, compounded by a developer that walked away in June. TD Cowen analyst Jeff Osborne, who maintained his Hold rating and $235 price target on July 20, flagged these execution risks as a direct threat to revenue forecasts for 2027 and 2028.

Osborne’s caution reflects deeper concerns about valuation. The stock is trading at more than 66 times book value and, by some measures, at a price-to-earnings multiple of 514 — a level that even the most bullish analysts concede is stretched. The TD Cowen note estimated second-quarter revenue of $837 million and EBITDA of $127 million, about 15% below the Street’s $149 million consensus. For the full year, the firm sees roughly $3.75 billion in revenue and $670 million in EBITDA. The broader analyst community is split: nine rate the stock a Buy, eleven a Hold, with an average price target near $285, though a larger survey of 29 analysts yields a consensus “Buy” and a slightly lower target of $281.43.

The skepticism was amplified earlier this month by a critical short-seller report from Hunterbrook Media, which questioned Bloom’s supply chain dependence on Chinese scandium — a claim the company denies. That report landed on July 8 and has cast a shadow over the stock ever since. Even a $1.7 billion financing package for a Nebius Group project, led by Oaktree and Industrial Development Funding, failed to stem the sell-off. The market recognized that the funds cover only installation costs and do not flow directly to Bloom’s revenue line.

Insider selling has added to the narrative of unease. Over the past three months, insiders sold a total of $44 million in shares. Board member Mary K. Bush sold 25,000 shares at $266.96 on May 7, and former CEO John T. Chambers unloaded 55,000 shares at $297.69 on May 28 — though the latter was part of a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan established in February. While such plans are routine for portfolio diversification, the sheer size of sales has not gone unnoticed by retail investors.

Yet it is not all bad news. A recent decision by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) that favors on-site power generation could open new avenues for Bloom. TD Cowen also highlights potential new contracts in Texas (248 megawatts) and Spain (300 megawatts). The company’s order backlog stood at approximately $20 billion at the end of 2025, with a GAAP remaining performance obligation of $492.6 million as of March 31. The supply chain issue also rippled to key partner MTAR Technologies in India, which generates about 55% of its revenue from Bloom; its stock hit daily limit-down for three consecutive sessions despite no order cancellations being reported.

All eyes now turn to the second-quarter earnings report due on July 28. The Street expects earnings per share of $0.41, up from $0.10 a year ago, on revenue of $828.4 million — a 106.5% increase. In the first quarter, Bloom delivered a beat with $0.44 EPS and $751.1 million in revenue, representing a 130.4% year-over-year jump. Management has guided for full-year 2026 EPS between $1.85 and $2.25. With the stock already deeply oversold, the quarterly results will either validate the project-delay fears or restore confidence that the massive AI-fueled backlog can actually translate into the bottom line. For now, the market is voting with its feet — and it is not yet convinced.