BlackRock’s 8.1% Stake in Archer Aviation Sparks Market Volatility

Archer Aviation US03945R1023

Archer Aviation's stock experienced a tug-of-war between institutional validation and dilution concerns this past week. The simultaneous emergence of a significant passive stake held by BlackRock and a regulatory filing for the resale of existing shares created a mixed market signal, leading to notable price swings. The central question for investors is whether these developments can catalyze a sustained shift in the stock's trajectory.

The market dynamics were primarily driven by two separate filings dated January 22. In a notable show of institutional support, asset management giant BlackRock disclosed a passive 8.1% ownership position in Archer, equivalent to approximately 53 million shares, via a Schedule 13G filing.

Conversely, the company filed to register the resale of 341,984 Class A common shares. These shares were originally issued to selling stockholders in connection with an acquisition completed on January 17. Crucially, this registration does not provide Archer with new capital; it merely permits those specific holders to sell their shares in the public market.

This juxtaposition of a major new institutional holder alongside the potential for near-term selling by other parties fueled investor uncertainty. After reaching an intraday high on Thursday, the stock retreated on Friday, closing at $8.61, down 4.44% for the session. Trading volume was elevated at just over 32 million shares.

Commercial Ambitions Contrast with Financial Realities

On the commercial front, Archer announced progress. The company has been named the preferred eVTOL provider for the EXPO 2027 in Belgrade under an agreement with the Serbian government. The deal includes an option for the purchase of up to 25 of Archer's "Midnight" aircraft. While such agreements are designed to bolster the company's international footprint, they precede tangible revenue generation.

Financially, Archer remains solidly in a pre-revenue, development-focused stage. The company's balance sheet shows substantial liquidity, with approximately $1.7 billion in cash and equivalents. However, profitability is not yet in sight, with a reported Q3 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.20 and an expected annual loss per share of -$1.32. Further highlighting investor caution, insider transactions over the last 90 days showed net sales of 307,635 shares, valued at roughly $2.37 million.

Technical and Analytical Outlook

From a technical analysis perspective, the picture is conflicted. In the short term, the share price is trading above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. However, it remains below the key 200-day simple moving average, indicating a definitive long-term trend reversal has not yet been confirmed.

Analyst opinions reflect a wide range of expectations. The current price target spectrum runs from a low of $8.00 (JPMorgan) to a street-high of $18.00, with the consensus target sitting near $12.14.

The immediate focus for traders is whether the stock can maintain support around the $8.50 level. Positive catalysts, such as concrete advancements in the FAA certification process (Phase 4) or the conversion of purchase options into firm orders, could provide the momentum needed to challenge higher resistance levels. Conversely, any certification delays or persistent worries over potential share sales by registered holders are likely to cap upward movement in the near term.

@ boerse-global.de | US03945R1023 BLACKROCK’S