BlackRock Edges Deeper Into OMV as the Energy Major Navigates a Quarter of Contradictions

BlackRock quietly raised its OMV voting rights stake to 4.39% on earnings day, signaling confidence despite a 12% profit drop and delayed Borouge IPO.

The world’s largest asset manager has quietly increased its footprint in OMV, lifting its voting rights stake to 4.39% on the very day the Austrian energy group released its first-quarter numbers. While the move from 4.30% is technically modest — comprising 4.06% in direct shareholdings and 0.33% via instruments such as American Depositary Receipts and securities lending positions — it signals a vote of confidence in a company wrestling with operational headwinds and a sweeping strategic overhaul.

The timing is telling. BlackRock’s incremental accumulation comes as OMV’s stock has surged roughly 25% since the start of the year, trading at €60.40 and brushing against overbought territory with a relative strength index above 75. Yet beneath the surface, the first-quarter results painted a far more nuanced picture than the share price suggests.

A Quarter of Two Halves

OMV’s adjusted operating profit under clean CCS fell 12% to €1.025 billion, while earnings per share dropped 21% to €1.00 — well short of the €1.32 consensus estimate from six analysts. The culprit was a familiar one: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which crippled the group’s upstream activities in the Middle East and dragged global production down 7%. The fuel segment took an additional hit from one-off hedging losses of roughly €100 million, triggered by disrupted crude flows that wiped out gains from higher refinery margins.

The energy division contributed €723 million to the bottom line, down from €910 million a year earlier. But chemicals provided a bright spot, nearly doubling its contribution to €245 million as polyethylene margins surged 30% and polypropylene climbed 25%.

Two banks had already trimmed their forecasts ahead of the release. RBC cut its 2026 earnings estimate by 15%, while Barclays analyst Ramachandra Kamath lowered his EPS projection to €6.72 and maintained an “Underweight” rating with a €52 price target — a full 14% below the current share price.

Borouge International: The Big Bet

The quarter’s defining event, however, was not the earnings miss but the completion of Borouge International at the end of March. The 50/50 joint venture with XRG brings together Borealis, NOVA Chemicals, and XRG’s Borouge assets under one roof, creating what management says will be the world’s fourth-largest polyolefin producer.

The numbers attached to the venture are eye-catching. OMV forecasts cycle-high EBITDA of over $7 billion, compared with a pro-forma average of $4.5 billion between 2021 and 2025. Synergies of more than €500 million are expected by 2030. Analysts at Erste Group described the quarter as profitable within estimates and highlighted operating cash flow of €1.6 billion.

Yet there are complications. The planned initial public offering of Borouge International in Abu Dhabi has been pushed back to 2027, halving OMV’s dividend income from the venture to $250 million. Analysts estimate this could shave €0.60 to €0.70 off the total dividend per OMV share.

Dividends, Production, and a New Era

For the 2025 financial year, OMV is proposing a payout of €4.40 per share — a regular dividend of €3.15 plus a special dividend of €1.25. The annual general meeting on May 27 will vote on the proposal, with the ex-dividend date set for June 8 and payment on June 11.

Looking ahead, the group has trimmed its 2026 production guidance to 280,000 to 290,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day due to the Hormuz restrictions. It has raised its crude oil price assumption to $85 to $95 per barrel and its gas price forecast for the Trading Hub Europe to around €45 per megawatt-hour.

Capital expenditure for 2026 is pegged at roughly €3.2 billion, a notable reduction from prior years that reflects ongoing capital discipline following the Borealis deconsolidation. The medium-term story hinges on the Neptun Deep gas project in the Black Sea, which is on track for completion by the end of 2026 with first output expected in 2027.

A leadership transition adds another layer of intrigue. Emma Delaney, formerly an executive vice president at BP, will take over as CEO on September 1, 2026 — becoming the first woman to lead OMV. CFO Reinhard Florey, meanwhile, has been appointed deputy CEO and will remain in his role until at least June 2029.

The stock now sits at €60.40, within striking distance of its 52-week high of €63.20. Whether it can breach that level depends on whether the operational headwinds ease and the Borouge story delivers on its promise — or whether the cautious voices at Barclays and RBC prove prescient.