BlackBerry Faces Pivotal Test on June 25 as Meme Rally Meets Earnings Reality

BlackBerry stock falls 23% from 2026 high; June 25 earnings and AGM to test if growth story holds. Focus on IoT, cybersecurity, and physical AI push.

After a blistering run that saw BlackBerry shares rocket to a 2026 high of €9.99 in early June, the stock has shed roughly 23% of that value, currently trading at around €7.70. Yet even after the pullback, the Waterloo-based technology company still boasts a year-to-date gain of more than 136%. The question now is whether the speculative fervor that drove those gains has legs — and the answer will come on June 25.

A Double-Header for Investors

That Wednesday morning, BlackBerry will release its fiscal first-quarter results before the opening bell, followed by a virtual annual general meeting at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time. The AGM agenda includes board elections, the appointment of auditors, and a vote on the deferred share unit plan. For analysts, the earnings release takes center stage: consensus estimates call for earnings per share of $0.03, a 50% improvement from the year-ago quarter.

Attention will also focus on revenue trends in the Internet of Things and cybersecurity divisions, where the company has promised greater autonomy and transparency. The new structure is part of a broader strategic pivot.

From Turnaround to Growth Story

Management has formally declared the turnaround complete and now casts BlackBerry as a pure growth company. Its weapon of choice is "physical AI" — a push to embed QNX software into industrial robots, medical devices, and automotive systems. CFO Tim Foote outlined the ambition in early June, stressing that QNX will target underserved markets. The segment already delivered a record revenue of $78.7 million in the fiscal fourth quarter, up 20% year over year, with an EBITDA margin of 27%. Its license backlog swelled to roughly $950 million.

The broader Q4 report was solid: overall sales rose 10% from a year earlier, operating cash flow improved to $45.6 million, and BlackBerry recorded its eighth straight quarter of better GAAP net income. The company ended the fiscal year with $432 million in cash, or roughly $232 million net of debt.

Meme Hype Meets Fundamentals

Despite these operational bright spots, the recent rally was heavily fueled by retail enthusiasm — particularly from the WallStreetBets community. The stock surged nearly 19% in a single session and added another 10% pre-market shortly after, only to give back gains as quickly. The current price remains well above the 50-day moving average of €5.34, underscoring how much of the move reflects sentiment and positioning rather than underlying strength.

A Buyback and a Forward View

Adding to the mix, BlackBerry renewed a share buyback program approved by the Toronto Stock Exchange, authorizing the repurchase of up to 26.8 million common shares — about 4.6% of the float. For the full fiscal year 2027, analysts project EPS of $0.17 on revenue of roughly $600 million, representing growth of 6% and 12%, respectively.

June 25 will be the first major test of whether BlackBerry can deliver on its growth promises. If the IoT and cybersecurity numbers confirm the new narrative, the post-meme correction could prove temporary. If not, the stock may find itself retesting the levels that preceded the frenzy.