Bitcoin’s Search for a Floor Amid Divergent Market Forces

Bitcoin CRYPTO000BTC

As traditional equity markets celebrate record highs, Bitcoin continues to struggle, closing December 24, 2025, just below the $87,000 level. The leading cryptocurrency has shed approximately 9% of its value this month, repeatedly failing to secure a decisive break above the psychologically significant $90,000 barrier in recent attempts.

The current price action presents a notable divergence. While Bitcoin faces headwinds, the S&P 500 index closed at a fresh all-time high this week. The MSCI All Country World Index has rallied for five consecutive sessions and is up roughly 18% for 2025. Simultaneously, gold has surged to a new record above $4,500 per ounce. Bitcoin is currently benefiting from neither the equity rally nor the precious metals surge, suggesting a more defensive posture among larger market participants.

This cautious behavior persists despite a macroeconomic backdrop that typically favors risk assets. U.S. economic growth remains robust, with third-quarter GDP expanding at 4.3%. Furthermore, markets are pricing in interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve for 2026, which generally reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets—a dynamic that historically supports Bitcoin.

ETF Outflows: A Persistent Drag

A primary source of pressure has been sustained capital withdrawals from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Data for the week of December 15-19 shows these products experienced net outflows of about $497 million. This marks a significant shift from the substantial inflows seen earlier in the year and signals a cooling in institutional demand.

However, the intensity of these outflows is demonstrably easing. Daily withdrawals have declined from $357.69 million on December 15 to $142.19 million by December 22. The 30-day average of ETF net flows, negative since early November, is now gradually approaching the zero line, indicating a measurable slowdown in selling pressure.

On-Chain Metrics Hint at Potential Stabilization

Beneath the surface price weakness, certain blockchain indicators offer glimmers of stabilization. The "Coin Days Destroyed" (CDD) metric, which tracks the movement of long-dormant Bitcoin, has declined markedly in December. This suggests reduced activity from long-term holders, who represent the largest potential source of sell-side pressure. A continued decline in their activity could help establish a market bottom.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has retreated to approximately $3.05 trillion, dipping back below the $3 trillion threshold. Trading volumes remain thin as many participants have stepped away ahead of the holiday period.

Critical Levels and Forthcoming Catalysts

Market analysts express concern over the lack of robust recovery from recent lows. Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Analyst at FxPro, notes, "The market has been unable to mount a solid recovery from the local low. This indicates heightened selling pressure." Should risk aversion spread to other asset classes, cryptocurrencies could face increased pressure in the coming weeks.

Observers from 10x Research are monitoring shifts in derivatives, ETF flows, and technical signals. The market is also approaching the largest Bitcoin options expiry in history, an event that could create both stress and opportunity.

For now, the $90,000 level stands as a formidable resistance point. On the downside, analysts identify the zone between $69,700 and $71,400 as a potential support area should the downtrend persist. Adding to the cautious outlook, stablecoin reserves on major exchanges have fallen by nearly $1.9 billion over the past 30 days, pointing to reduced immediate buying power. Fresh catalysts will likely be required to shift the current market direction.