Bitcoin Price Rebounds to $68,500 as Trump Signals Iran De-escalation Amid ETF Outflows and Q1 Losses

02.04.2026 - 12:19:17 | ad-hoc-news.de

Bitcoin climbs nearly 2% to $68,500 on April 1 as U.S. President Trump's comments on ending the Iran conflict boost risk assets, despite spot Bitcoin ETFs posting $174 million in outflows and capping Q1 2026 with a 23% quarterly decline.

Bitcoin price, BTC today, Bitcoin ETF - Foto: THN

Bitcoin (BTC) rose nearly 2% to around $68,800 early on April 1, 2026, driven by U.S. President Donald Trump's statements signaling an imminent end to military operations against Iran, lifting risk appetite across markets including the leading digital asset. For U.S. investors, this rebound offers a potential entry point after Bitcoin's sharp 23% Q1 decline—its worst opening quarter since 2018—while spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $174 million in outflows on the same day, highlighting divergent pressures on the asset's price dynamics.

As of: Thursday, April 02, 2026, 10:19 AM UTC (6:19 AM ET)

Trump's Iran Comments Spark Risk-On Rally

President Trump announced on Tuesday evening that the U.S. intends to cease military operations in Iran within two to three weeks, claiming objectives like curbing nuclear ambitions and prompting regime change have been met. This de-escalation hope rippled through financial markets, with Bitcoin advancing as a high-beta risk asset. By 02:24 ET on April 1—equivalent to 06:24 UTC or 08:24 Berlin time—Bitcoin traded at $68,807, up from $66,710 the prior morning.

The direct transmission to Bitcoin stems from its sensitivity to global risk sentiment. During the Iran conflict escalation earlier in Q1, Bitcoin fell alongside speculative assets, dropping from near $87,500 to $66,700 by March's end. Trump's remarks reversed some caution, allowing BTC to outperform gold since the conflict's onset while broader equities and commodities also gained.

U.S. investors, many accessing Bitcoin via spot ETFs or futures, benefit from this macro tailwind as it counters quarter-end selling. However, the asset's volatility—evident in its decade-long 15,000% rise punctuated by sharp drawdowns—remains a key risk.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Face Outflows Despite Price Uptick

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded net outflows of $174 million on April 1, signaling renewed selling pressure at the start of Q2. Grayscale's Bitcoin Mini Trust bucked the trend with $10.25 million in inflows, but overall, institutional flows diverged from the spot price recovery.

Distinguishing clearly: these ETF flows impact Bitcoin demand indirectly through authorized participants buying or selling the underlying BTC on exchanges like Coinbase. Outflows mean ETF sponsors sell BTC holdings, adding supply pressure, yet Trump's risk-on signal overwhelmed this on April 1. For U.S. investors, ETF accessibility via traditional brokers makes monitoring flows crucial, as sustained outflows could cap upside even amid favorable geopolitics.

Prior to this, March saw mixed ETF activity amid the Q1 downturn, but April 1's data underscores how macro events can decouple short-term price from product-specific flows.

Q1 2026 Marks Bitcoin's Worst Start in Eight Years

Bitcoin closed Q1 2026 down 23%, falling from highs near $87,500 to around $66,700 by March 31. This marks the third-worst Q1 performance in Bitcoin's history, trailing only steeper drops in earlier cycles, and the poorest since 2018.

The decline tied directly to Iran conflict risks denting speculative appetite, with Bitcoin underperforming safer havens temporarily. At 8:30 a.m. ET on April 1 (12:30 UTC, 14:30 Berlin), BTC stood at $68,510—up $1,800 from yesterday's open and $16,635 higher year-over-year, showing resilience despite quarterly pain.

For U.S. portfolios, this Q1 loss contrasts Bitcoin's long-term outperformance of stocks, where it has delivered striking gains over the past decade. Inflation-hedge narratives persist, but volatility demands position sizing discipline.

Broad Crypto Market Tracks Bitcoin's Lead

Ethereum rose 4.2% to $2,148, outpacing Bitcoin's gain, while XRP added 2.8% to $1.36. Solana, Cardano, and BNB gained 1-2.5%, with Dogecoin up 2.7%. Altcoins largely flatlined in March due to war risks but followed Bitcoin's April 1 rebound.

Bitcoin's dominance as the sector bellwether held, with its move distinct from ETF flows yet amplified by broader risk sentiment. U.S. investors in multi-asset crypto exposure note Bitcoin's role in setting the tone, though alts showed higher beta to the de-escalation news.

Long-Term Bitcoin Context for U.S. Investors

Bitcoin's all-time high remains $126,198 on October 6, 2025, over 80% above current levels. Its decade-plus track record beats major indices, fueled by scarcity (21 million cap), network security, and adoption as payment or store-of-value.

U.S.-specific drivers include spot ETF approvals enabling billions in inflows historically, CME futures for hedging, and regulatory clarity. Yet, quantum computing risks loom: Google research indicates elliptic curve cryptography—core to Bitcoin—could break with fewer qubits than thought, potentially by 2029, though mitigations like protocol upgrades are feasible.

Miners and the Bitcoin network operate separately; no recent on-chain or mining news directly drove April 1's move, keeping focus on macro and ETF dynamics.

Risks and Outlook Ahead

Uncertainty lingers over Iran's Strait of Hormuz and ceasefire terms, risking reversal if talks falter. ETF outflows could persist if Q2 risk appetite wanes, while U.S. Treasury yields or dollar strength—unmentioned in recent data—pose counter-risks.

Bitcoin's correlation to U.S. risk proxies like Nasdaq remains high, making Fed expectations key. Investors should watch daily ETF flows, geopolitical updates, and spot vs. futures spreads for positioning signals.