Bitcoin Holds Near $69k as On-Chain Signals Warn of an Unfinished Bottom
13.02.2026 - 20:43:02
Bitcoin remains anchored around $69,000, yet warnings are quietly mounting beneath the surface. Fresh on-chain data indicate that the market has not yet carved out a durable bottom, even as a prominent wallet has shifted BTC onto the Binance exchange—an action that has preceded sharper moves lower in past cycles.
CryptoQuant analysis shows several on-chain measures have not reached the troughs that historically signaled market bottoms. On February 5, holders realized notable losses, but the share of coins in profit stands at 55%. In earlier cycles, that proportion slipped to 45–50% before sustainable recoveries took hold.
A notable pattern: long-term holders are currently selling at their cost basis, not at a loss as is often observed at market bottoms. In addition, Bitcoin trades roughly 18% above the realized price of $55,000—the average entry price for all bitcoins. In previous downturns, prices fell well below this level before a bottom formed.
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Concurrently, Lookonchain reported a sizable transfer from a single whale: between 8,200 and 10,000 BTC were moved to Binance within 48 hours. The most recent transfer involved 2,035 BTC. Analysts point out that similar inflows from this wallet in the past have often preceded short-term price dips.
Network Activity Slows
Investor caution is reflected in the network data as well. Daily transaction counts have declined, and the number of active addresses has fallen, signaling lighter participation from retail players. This cooling hints at an absence of a clear near-term demand catalyst. Sentiment gauges remain in the “extreme fear” zone, underscoring a cautious, uncertain mood for the near term.
Institutional Support as a Counterweight
Even with cautious on-chain signals, a longer-term driver remains intact: growing institutional adoption. MSCI’s recent decision to retain crypto-exposed companies within its global indices removes a key hurdle for publicly listed firms. Alongside advancing regulatory clarity, this could help stabilize market structure over the medium term—though the on-chain data argues for patience in the near term.
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